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Today in Russian Business – Nov 9, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (November 9th, 2009) Writes:
At the G20 finance summit in St Andrews, the problem of unemployment was raised as well as 'uneven growth'; Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said that 'exit strategies' will have to be considered.  Kudrin apparently believes that a second wave of crisis is unlikely.  Goldman Sachs will not become the key adviser to Rusal on its intended $30 billion stock-market listing, a decision which is 'mutual'; the Bank of America Merrill Lynch will take its place.  Apparently Goldman Sachs may have been deterred by Rusal owner Oleg Deripaska's problems in the US, fueled by allegations that he is involved with organized crime.  The government has nearly completed the initial development of an agency designed to help provide subsidies for exports loans and regulate export tariffs.  Mitsubishi has acquired a 40% stake in Russia's Rolf Import.  ...

Today in Russian Business – Nov 6, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (November 6th, 2009) Writes:
'We will have to take into account this style of dealing with partners in the future, though this scornful approach toward partners mainly affects the Europeans, not us':  Putin reacts to the aborted GM deal.   Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin was in London yesterday to discuss the envisaged issue of $17.8 billion in sovereign eurobonds - the selling of which is a core part of the government's deficit-reducing strategy.  A bond issue would 'be likely to draw keen interest from investors because Russia,[...] is in far better shape financially than a decade ago' says the New York Times.   Kudrin is planning changes to the budget which would see funds originally designed to recapitalize banks redirected to flagging industrial giants (such as Avtovaz) and the jobless, as the economic situation has been less harsh than expected.  In ...

Today in Russian Business – Oct 26, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (October 26th, 2009) Writes:
The ever-positive Vladimir Putin is forecasting 8% inflation for the coming year, which would be a 'post-Soviet low'.  The government will sell tons of its gold stockpile this year to cover its budget deficit and help it fund other supporting measures such as Moscow's $570 million federal loan.  Private lender Alfa Bank is working on debt restructuring terms for giants BasEl and RusAl, and threatening to take the latter to court over unpaid debts.  St Petersburg Bank plans to raise up to $150 million selling additional preference shares to cope with its losses.  Reuters has compiled a timeline on Russia's bad loans.  'For all of the vaunted stability of the current regime, Russians still don't believe in the permanence of their system enough to invest into their society,' comments this reporter in a piece about ...

Today in Russian Business – October 15, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (October 15th, 2009) Writes:
Avtovaz is on the brink of bankruptcy, Sergei Stepashin, the head of State Audit Chamber has informed Reuters.  Russia's government has stepped up the pressure on Renault to assist its embattled partner to stay afloat.  According to Ria-Novosti, the Industry Ministry has concluded that the government should not bail out the Lada-maker.  Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Khristenko has apparently said that sales of passenger cars may drop by 60% this year.  Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has been quoted in Forbes as saying that the ruble is likely to remain stable over the next three years, but the issue of joblessness will prevail for at least a year.  The Federal Court Marshals Service is teaming up with Sberbank to create a new way of facilitating debt payments - allowing individuals to pay off loans via ATMs.  Kraft Foods has ...

Today in Russian Business – September 30, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 30th, 2009) Writes:
In advance of a meeting with the heads of some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, Putin has defended Russia's crisis management, reiterated a commitment to 'a liberal market economy' and emphasized that when the crisis has passed, the government will diminish its intervention in the economy.  The central bank has made an unexpected cut in its key re-financing rate to 10% from 10.5% as a result of dwindling industrial production.  Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina has apparently cautiously suggested that the country's GDP decline could be lower than the official forecast.  A Standard & Poor's analyst has said that Russia is already caught in the second wave of the financial crisis.  Sberbank will provide a loan to Rusal to help it pay back its debt to Alfa Group.  VEB may acquire a ...

Today in Russian Business – September 17, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 17th, 2009) Writes:
Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov is quietly optimistic that 'a slow and cautious recovery is under way'.   Shuvalov has predicted that the economy could return to its pre-crisis state by 2012 and does not envisage circumstances necessitating the devaluation of the ruble in the near future.  Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has told reporters that Russia's GDP in the July-September period is expected to increase 1.5% against the previous quarter.  Is a new privatization program on the cards?  Reuters reports that Russia has apparently spent more than 50% of the $480 billion it had allocated for crisis fighting.  St Petersburg construction workers are apparently threatening Pikalyovo-style action unless Putin personally deals with the problem of wage arrears.  Who knows, they might even get a free watch.  The Washington Post reports that Russia has reached a settlement with ...

Today in Russian Business – September 15, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 15th, 2009) Writes:
The Central Bank has cut its key refinancing rate to 10.5%, the sixth such cut since April.  Russia could borrow less than $18 billion abroad next year if oil prices stay high.  Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has defended BRIC as a 'locomotive of the global economy'.  Apparently Opel will be sending less funds to Russia than initially reported: €170 million rather than €600 million.  Sberbank has insisted that the operations of Opel will not be directly influenced by the government.  Almost 5,000 Avtovaz employees face redundancy, according to ITAR-TASS.  Mikhail Prokhorov has complained that his charitable foundation has been forced to leave the city of Norilsk because of threats from 'feudal lords'.  Billionaire Alexander Lebedev has offered to give away shares in some of his firms to 'big western names' to bring them ...

Today in Russian Business – September 9, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 9th, 2009) Writes:
According to Bloomberg, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said that the budget deficit may reach 6.8% of GDP next year, 4% in 2011, and 3% in 2012.  The Duma has recommended the ousting of banking lobbyist Anatoly Aksakov, whose comments earlier this year on devaluation shook the financial market, from the National Banking Council.  Car sales fell by 54% in August, the smallest decrease (year-on-year) in four months.  Belgium's Solvay has announced it has agreed to buy Sodium Group Investments Limited's majority stake in Russia's Berezniki soda ash plant for $230.2 million, Reuters reports.  The board of General Motors has met in Detroit under pressure from the German government to elucidate their plans for Opel.  Dixy, Russia's third biggest retailer, expects retail sales to rise by up to 18% this year.  Russia has been ranked...

Not Yet Out of the Woods

Robert Amsterdam (August 5th, 2009) Writes:
topless090509.jpgThe RTS is surging, oil comfortably trading around $70, and even Vladimir Putin is doing his topless thing again, which is always a sign of economic robustness.  Despite all the rosy news, Owen Matthews at Newsweek thinks that the crisis may not yet be done with Russia.Don't be fooled: Russia's still reeling from the commodities crash, and things are poised to get worse before they get better. Putin's oil fund will be "practically exhausted" by the end of 2010, says Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. By the Russian government's own estimate, the economy will shrink by up to 8.5 percent in 2009. Worse, many Russian businesses appear to be all but insolvent. They face a $200 billion mountain of ...

Energy Blast – July 10, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (July 10th, 2009) Writes:
Russia may have sidestepped greenhouse gas emission cuts at the G8 summit, but Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has pledged a Russian 'energy revolution' when the State Duma consider a bill to increase energy efficiency by 40% by 2020.  A transit deal for the Nabucco pipeline is to be signed next week but according to analysts, 'the major obstacles to Nabucco still stand and supply is number one'.  Reuters has a Q and A on what to expect from the Nabucco deal.  The European Commission has tempered demands for powers to coordinate gas flows across the union in the event of a gas cut off.  The European Commission will declare a 'Community Emergency' if the EU loses more than 10% of its gas supply.  Venezuela's Oil Minister has said that the country is making progress towards developing ...

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