Peak Oil and Petrobras

Tony Daltorio, Investment U Research

Back on Wednesday, September 9, I wrote on how to profit from British Petroleum ADR (NYSE: BP)’s huge discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, and how to profit from peak oil.

And while I stand by the profitability of both that find and stock, I think I should clarify that “peak oil” really doesn’t exist anymore. So instead, let’s call it peak-cheap-and-easily-recoverable-oil instead, since that seems much more appropriate.

The days of cheap and accessible oil are long gone, but that very fact opens up rich opportunities for investors who face up to the realities of today’s oil market.

Possibly the biggest reality comes down to this: Giant oil fields are the industry’s lifeblood. Out of the world’s 70,000 oil fields, the largest twenty account for a quarter of global production.

That’s

Currencies have strong rally!  Trade Deficit jumps 16.3% in July!  HR 1207 Gets a hearing!  Gold gets back to $1,000! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Happy Friday to one and all! Today is Patriot Day in the U.S. and a day that brings back memories of cowardly attacks on our country 8 years ago. I remember the shock and horror on everyone’s faces, and that image will remain with me to the grave. I also remember trying to write the Pfennig the “day after”… It just didn’t seem that important of a thing to do, but a reader told me that to keep things as “normal” as possible was the best thing I could do… So… I wrote…

OK… The currencies, and this time I mean the majority of them not just euro and yen, added to their gains this week VS the dollar yesterday… The Big Dog, euro, is once again

ZEW says Germany is on the mend…  UK inflation remains higher than expected…  Safe Haven, what safe haven?  Housing data remains soft… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well… I received an injection of steroids into my left knee yesterday, and already today, I can tell that they are working their magic! I guess I’ll have to give up my plans to try out for the Cardinals next year, now! HA! So, my knee is recovering from 3-weeks of agonizing pain and swelling… I’ve got that going for me!

And the currencies seem to be recovering this morning too, from the recent go around in the ring with the risk aversion campers. The currencies (except yen), were last seen yesterday up against the rope, doing their best imitation of the rope-a-dope.

But… This morning… The markets are just giddy about two pieces of data from Europe… First, German Investor Confidence

Currencies rally…  Eurozone growth unexpectedly stronger!  FOMC extends QE…  Norges is the first! And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Well… Turn-around Tuesday came 24 hours later this week! HA! Yes, the currencies came back yesterday, but not with a lot of conviction… You see… Stocks rallied, but that doesn’t mean what I talked about yesterday still won’t happen… Be careful there!

The euro has received some additional love this morning, as the Eurozone’s economic growth printed better than expected, albeit still negative… But… Germany and France showed growth, which I must say is very unexpected! That means that both Germany and France have exited the recession… Well, that is at least for now! For those of you keeping score at home, Eurozone GDP fell -.1%, which is far better than the -.5% that was expected… Oh! And this is for the 2nd QTR… You would have to

Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Hereeeeeee’s Baaaaaacccckkkkk… Oh no! Just when you thought it was safe to open the Daily Pfennig and not get lectured on deficit spending… He’s back! Oh well, It’s been over two weeks, first to Vancouver, then on vacation.

We’ve got a lot of catching up to do, eh? Mike and Chris did a Fantastico job of taking the conn on the Pfennig in my absence… So thanks to them… But it’s back to me, and besides a couple of days in San Francisco later this month, I’m all yours! (I bet that just makes you smile like a Cheshire Cat… NOT!)

OK… Rather than beat around the bush this morning, Chris left me this note from Friday’s price action, so let’s go to the Friday round up and then onto today! Here’s Chris!

The currency markets were fairly calm Friday morning, but at around 9:00

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Bias to sell dollars again…  More supply to choke down…  More thoughts on China…  RBA leaves rates unchanged… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A beautiful day and night here in St. Louis yesterday, where was that during the 4th of July weekend? Oh well, at least I got to enjoy a couple of hours of it, outside! There’s more Treasury supply for the markets to choke down, and the whispering campaign regarding China is growing louder… Those things and more, in this edition of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts, Tuesday, July 7, 2009… And here’s our host…

Hello! Everyone! How nice it is to be with you again today! We’ll start out with a recap of yesterday… When I signed off the airwaves yesterday morning, the dollar was having its way with the currencies, and the euro was about to give up the 1.39 handle… Apparently, 1.39

Risk Aversion is strong once again…  Currencies get sold…  What’s China really up to?  RBA to leave rates unchanged? And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Some people have the day off today, so we’ll probably not be back in full force until tomorrow… Not that we’ve been in full force, as a workforce in the U.S. for some time… But that’s another story for another day! Today is a new day, and new week!

Friday’s thinned out markets were not what the currencies wanted to see, as the bias to Risk Aversion was magnified in the thinned out markets, only making the selling of the currencies even worse… Some “levels” were hit in the thinned out markets, and that caused even more selling in the overnight markets as Japan and Asia came on board.

I’m really kind of shocked at the Asian selling… You may recall that last week

A 4-day rally gets stopped at the border…  Home Prices fall at a -18.12% pace…  Alice Rivlin gives her 2-cents… * Kiwi bond maturities galore next month… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! As tradition with the Pfennig would have it, here’s my introduction to July… There I was… On a July morning… Looking for love… With the strength of a new day dawning, and… The beautiful sun…

Yes, for those “old rockers” from the 70’s like me… That’s Uriah Heep, at their best!

OK… So, welcome to July! The last day of June was quite the volatile one to say the least! There we were waiting for the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index to print, and show that home prices were still down by quite a bit, when it did, it did, it printed at -18.12%… But! The media was all over that like a cheap suit, clamoring that

Currencies rally…  More on the BRIC’s…  New Zealand’s GDP contracts..  Bernanke gets grilled! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of what seemed to be a very long week… The last weekend in June, can you believe that? Next week, we’ll be getting ready for the 4th of July celebrations! WOW!

Well… What a volatile week it has been in the currencies! Up, down, all around, and settling back to levels that we saw before the Fed’s FOMC meeting earlier this week. Suddenly, investors are looking for yield again… Looks like they are “Desperately Seeking (not Susan) Yield! And why not? The Fed, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have come out and said that there will be no interest rate hikes until we’ve turned quite a few pages on the 2010 calendar.

So, with investors clamoring for yield, the dollar gets taken to the woodshed… As I