In the energy market on Tuesday, crude for August delivery fell off, closing at $69.89/barrel, down $1.60. July reformulated gasoline lost nearly 4 cents, to $1.8972/gallon. The quarter ended with a net gain of 41% for crude. It was the biggest three-month advance since Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in the third quarter of 1990.

Analyzing the day’s action, Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading, said that, “All of the rising demand expectations got doused with the number on falling consumer confidence … This is key ahead of the big Fourth of July holiday as it increases fears that people will stay home instead of travel.”

Also weighing was that the U.K. GDP decreased 2.4% in the first quarter from 4Q08, the Office for National Statistics said in London, rather worse than forecasts for a slippage of only 2.1%.

With a holiday weekend looming, analysts have little in the way of prediction

In the energy market on Tuesday, crude for August delivery surged, closing at $69.24/barrel, up $1.74. July reformulated gasoline rose 3.35 cents, to $1.8932/gallon. “Inventories expectations and the weak dollar are helping crude,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading. Trading was “choppy with all the news that awaits us such as inventories and the Fed meeting.”

The Energy Information Administration will release its stockpile data this morning, with analysts expecting that U.S. commercial crude stocks will have dropped 1.2 million barrels, according Platts.

But fundamentalists are decrying the lock step inverse movement of crude and the dollar.

“The fundamentals don’t seem to matter,” said Bill O’Grady, the chief markets strategist at St. Louis-based Confluence Investment Management. “I can tell you what the oil market is going to do by just looking at the currency market.”

Source: Crude Rallies

Many investors are somewhat dazed and befuddled as they watch what used to be called “The Natural Resources Sector” bounce up and down as the summer season commences.  With the dollar up again, commodities including the precious metals and oil were off sharply yesterday. All in all, it was just a broadly negative day. Little was spared, including equities, which also took a serious hit.  Even perennial bull James Moore, of TheBullionDesk.com, was forced to write that, “Short-term the metal [gold] could extend lower as a result of the dollar.”  John Reade, of UBS in London, concurred, writing that, “We would not be surprised to see further short-term declines, especially in the absence of any material jewelry, physical-investment or ETF demand.”

How do you put a happy face on that? Easy, according to the folks at Casey Research. “However, the current correction is likely to prove beneficial longer-term with the

In the energy market on Wednesday, crude for July delivery slid below the $70 mark, but rebounded to close at $71.03/barrel, up 56 cents. July reformulated gasoline fell 3.8 cents, to $2.033/gallon. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said that crude stocks dropped by 3.9 million barrels for the week ended June 12. Gasoline supplies rose by 3.4 million barrels, while distillates were off 300,000. Refineries operated at 85.9% of capacity, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous week.

The falloff in crude was higher than expected. But, “We’re seeing demand for gasoline start to improve,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading. “That was a green shoot in the [EIA] numbers. That offset the bearishness from the other side of the report.” Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3 million barrels per day, up by 1.1% from the same period last year,

In the energy market on Tuesday, crude for July delivery was nearly unchanged, closing at $68.55/barrel, down 3 cents. July reformulated gasoline rose a half-cent, to $1.93/gallon.

Crude had fallen as low as $66.48 early in the day, before the housing data sparked hopes of an economic recovery and a rebound in energy demand.

“Oil is reacting to the bullish fundamental outlook of a weak dollar against the backdrop of an improving economic outlook,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading.

But there remains a lot of uncertainty. “Everyone is wondering whether the across-the-board rallies are for real or not, and whether prices have already over-discounted the modest signs of recovery we see cropping up,” wrote Edward Meir, of MF Global.

“For the moment, we think there is still too much buy-side momentum to call a top in any of these markets, be it energy, U.S. equities, or base metals,” Meir added. He

In the energy market on Wednesday, crude for July delivery advanced, closing at $63.45/barrel, up an even $1.00. June reformulated gasoline rose 3.39 cents, to $1.8917/gallon. The recent price is a “function of optimism” over early signs of global economic recovery, Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Naimi said yesterday. The Energy Information Administration recently predicted that oil will rise to $110/barrel by 2015 and $130 by 2030.

“The big picture is looking more and more bullish each day,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading. “The truth is that oil is looking at the big picture and is getting more and more concerned at the prospects of inflation and the plunging investment in oil infrastructure.”

Global investment in oil and gas projects is expected to slump 21% this year from a year ago, falling for the first time in a decade, the IEA predicted. More than 50 major oil and natural-gas

In the energy market on Friday, crude for July delivery advanced, closing at $61.67/barrel, up 62 cents. June reformulated gasoline rose 4.11 cents, to $1.8408/gallon. “The dollar is driving oil higher once again,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading. “Fears about our debt and fears over our credit rating are creating a crack in the confidence that we can print our way to economic prosperity.”

Traders were looking ahead to OPEC’s scheduled meeting Thursday in Vienna, at which the cartel will discuss production and oil prices. OPEC raised its production in April, for the first month in the previous eight.

Most analysts are not expecting another cut in production quota, but believe the talk will center on member compliance.

In the natgas arena, natural gas concluded another dismal week by falling 8.8 cents, to $3.515 per million British thermal units. For the week, natgas was off more than 14%.

Source:

In the energy market on Monday, crude for June delivery pushed to a better than 5-month high, closing at $54.47/barrel, up $1.27. June reformulated gasoline gained 6.86 cents, to $1.586/gallon.

Traders were upbeat after the home sales numbers and a report out of China that its PMI had also risen, for the second straight month.

It’s also “following stocks higher,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading.

There was a bit of wariness, though, with inventories remaining at 19-year highs and the bank stress tests looming.

“We are somewhat apprehensive about price prospects for energy over the short term in light of the stress-test results due to be announced later this week,” said Edward Meir, of MF Global (NYSE:MF).

“Both the commodity and equity markets have already pushed substantially higher in response to the slight improvement in the macro statistics,” Meir added.

Source: Oil Moves Higher

In the energy market on Thursday, crude for June delivery rose, closing at $49.62/barrel, up 77 cents. May reformulated gasoline added just over a penny, to $1.4015/gallon.

Traders somehow managed to shrug off the grim jobless data and crude’s inventory glut, and focused more on the weakened dollar.

As Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading, put it, “Oil continues to defy supply and demand.”

“The recent EIA numbers seem to be telling us that the OPEC cuts are not making the desired dents in overall crude oil inventories, as the drop in global demand seems to be outpacing the OPEC-engineered supply declines,” wrote Edward Meir, of MF Global (NYSE:MF).

“However, for the time being, the energy markets seem to be giving OPEC the benefit of the doubt, which is why prices are holding up around the $50 mark,” Meir added.

Source: Crude Creeps Higher

In the energy market on Monday, oil posted its biggest one-day loss in seven weeks, with crude for May delivery plunging to close at $45.88/barrel, down $4.45. May reformulated gasoline fell 8.08 cents, to $1.4119/gallon.

With the May contract losing front-month status today, there will likely be additional volatility in the market as speculators who don’t want physical oil have to sell the contract before expiration to avoid taking delivery.

Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading, sees “more choppiness” as expiration approaches, however “if the stock market stabilizes, we’ll see the price of oil start to come up,” he said.

“Justifiably anxious over the global economy, now in the throes of the most serious economic calamity since the 1930s, [the energy market] attaches to the slightest glimmer of hope signs of a nascent recovery,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, of MF Global (NYSE:MF).

Analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) disagreed, writing that they expect