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An interview with Charlie Gasparino

Prieur du Plessis (November 5th, 2009) Writes:

Dan Holland has just interviewed Wall Street chronicler Charlie Gasparino’s. The first few paragraphs of the interview that appeared on RealClearMarkets are published below.

There’s good reason to believe that Gasparino’s latest book, The Sellout, will become the definitive book on the current financial crisis and the events that led up to “The Great Recession.” Spanning three decades, The Sellout pulls no punches in chronicling the rise and fall of excessive Wall Street leverage and risk taking, as well as the cast of colorful characters that ultimately brought the US financial system to its knees. It will hit bookshelves tomorrow [Tuesday].

RealClearMarkets: You sat down recently with Wall Street legend Teddy Forstmann to discuss your new book and the genesis of the mess we now find ourselves in. Forstmann said it all began as a “cold” back in the 1970s and 1980s, and that since

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The Warning

Prieur du Plessis (October 24th, 2009) Writes:

In the midst of the 1990s bull market, one lone regulator warned about derivatives’ dangers - and overnight became the enemy of some of the most powerful people in Washington …

In The Warning, veteran Frontline producer Michael Kirk unearths the hidden history of the nation’s worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.

“I didn’t know Brooksley Born,” says former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, a member of President Clinton’s powerful Working Group on Financial Markets. “I was told that she was irascible, difficult, stubborn, unreasonable.” Levitt explains how the other principals of the Working Group - former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin -

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Einhorn on the markets

Prieur du Plessis (October 20th, 2009) Writes:

David Einhorn, highly respected hedge fund manager of Greenlight Capital and author of “Fooling some of the people all of the time” yesterday delivered the keynote address at the Value Investing Congress. His full speech can be accessed here, but Rolfe Winkler of Reuters has very handily published the highlights, as posted below.

On Bernanke and Geithner: Presently, Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner have become the quintessential short-term decision makers. They explicitly “do whatever it takes” to “solve one problem at a time” and deal with the unintended consequences later. It is too soon for history to evaluate their work, because there hasn’t been time for the unintended consequences of the “do whatever it takes” decision-making to materialize.

On too big to fail and the true lesson of Lehman: The proper way to deal with too-big-to-fail, or too inter-connected to fail, is to make sure

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Today in Russian Business – October 16, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (October 16th, 2009) Writes:
According to the FT, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have abandoned their attempt to join the World Trade Organization as a single customs union, after WTO members made clear the unprecedented suggestion would elongate the process by some years.  The trio will reportedly attempt to join simultaneously.  French retailer Carrefour has made a swift exit from Russia, only four months after the opening of its first store.  Bad news for Avtovaz: Sberbank and VTB have declined an offer to take stakes in the company in exchange for debt.  Gazprombank had its worst month of the year in September, posting losses of $529 million, the sixth time this year that the bank has posted a monthly loss.  Italy's Cremonini Group is set to open a $148 million meat-processing plant in the Moscow region to produce hamburgers for McDonalds by ...

Looking for a Recovery in Odd Places

QualityStocks (October 6th, 2009) Writes:

The business world loves a good economic indicator. Chief executives, budget planners, small-business owners, and others who must make assumptions about the health and direction of the economy take a keen interest in popular indicators such as consumer confidence, gross domestic product, housing starts, stock prices, employment data, and even the price of gold.

Economic indicators may take on extra significance when the nation is in a recession and anxious for signs of a recovery because the national psyche plays a key role in business cycles. People who are not experiencing any personal financial problems may nonetheless rein in their spending or alter the timing of major purchases when the news is telling them that the national economy is in difficult straits.

Right on the Kisser

When investors and economists anticipate that the economy is approaching a turning point, they may look in some unusual places for early indications of a shift in

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Greenspan vs Strauss-Kahn

Prieur du Plessis (October 2nd, 2009) Writes:

This post features a discussion at the Yalta Annual Meeting/Yalta European Strategy between Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The moderator of the three-part discussion is Chrystia Freeland, US managing editor of the Financial Times.

Part 1: The financial crisis

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

greenspan-vs-strauss-pic-1

Part 2: Global financial regulation

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

greenspan-vs-strauss-pic-2

Part 3: Crisis exit strategies

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

greenspan-vs-strauss-pic-3

Source: Chrystia Freeland, Financial Times (here, here and

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Gold: A Permanently Exuberant Plateau

Adrian Ash (September 22nd, 2009) Writes:

“Whether through exuberant hedgies or anxious private investors, gold just keeps pushing higher…”

So speculative betting on gold going higher now equals a record-busting 752-tonne position in Comex futures and options, yet this is not a bubble according to Michael Pento of Deltaga.

Let’s say otherwise. Let’s say that gold prices, surging by almost $100-per-ounce in barely a month, are very much in a bubble…blown up by near-zero interest rates worldwide and a sharply negative cost of borrowing after inflation. Were that the case, the question before potential and existing investors would be simple:

Is this “irrational exuberance” or a “permanently high plateau”?

Alan Greenspan applied the former to US price/earnings in Dec. 1996; Irving Fisher said the latter of US equities in Oct. 1929. Both were looking at what history would decide were clearly bubbles in hindsight. But Greenspan was three years and 105% early.

Fisher spoke less than 72 hours before

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The Only Way to Profit from a Stock Market Bubble

Contrarian Profits (September 18th, 2009) Writes:

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said it was impossible to tell a bubble while you were in it. Well Alan, I’ve got news for you: We’re in one now.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up 58% from its March lows, gold has finally broken through the $1,000-an-ounce level – and may go higher – and bond yields have fallen substantially in spite of the huge U.S. budget deficit.

It’s really not difficult to tell when you’re in a bubble. What’s tough is trying to figure out how to invest while it’s developing.

When current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke doubled the monetary base in a few weeks last fall, it was pretty obvious that the extra money would appear somewhere, either as zooming asset prices or as surging inflation. After all, the rapid increases in the U.S. money supply after 1995 produced

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Retail Sales Soar!

Contrarian Profits (September 16th, 2009) Writes:

Currencies rally on Retail Sales! China likes investments in Canada…Big Ben the “inflation fighter”…Gold climbs to $1,018! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Good news for me this morning, the pain in my left knee has subsided… Now, If I could just get that swelling to go down, I’d be in tall cotton! This has been quite the ordeal on the old Pfennig writer, and one that I will be glad to put in the rear view mirror!

Well… When I turned on the currency screens this morning, the euro was trading with a 1.47 handle! WOW! It just skipped to my Lou right through the 1.46 handle, eh? It began yesterday afternoon, the dollar was getting sold on the news of a strong Retail Sales figure, more on that in

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On Consumer Credit Contraction – Analyst Blog

Dirk Van Dijk (September 9th, 2009) Writes:
Considering the Consequences of Consumer Credit Contracting Yesterday the Federal Reserve announced that consumer credit contracted by a much larger than expected $21.5 billion in July, and that the contraction in June was larger than previously thought. Consumer credit is broken down into two major types: revolving (mostly credit cards) and non-revolving (personal loans, auto loans etc). Real estate-backed debt (aka mortgages) are not included in this report. The decline in total credit was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.4%, with revolving credit down at an 8.0% rate and non-revolving at an 11.7% rate. Given the success of the "Cash for Clunkers" program, the decline in non-revolving credit is pretty shocking. It marks a very distinct acceleration to the downside. In the second quarter, non-revolving credit was contracting at a 4.8% rate and just a 0.2% rate in the first quarter. The decline ...

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