by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /blockquote"For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a global financial crisis, which means that the usual driver of recovery will only be available if we can find another planet to export to."br /a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/japans-recovery-again/"Paul Krugman /abr /br //blockquoteblockquoteWith results still coming in, projections show the United Progressive Alliance is likely to win about 250 seats, making it a shoo-in to form the next government and provide continuity, a stable administration and progress on key economic and corporate reforms.br /a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124247401653426893.html"Wall Street Journal/a, May 16 2009/blockquotebr /blockquotePrime Minister Manmohan Singh’s electoral victory, the biggest any Indian politician has scored in two decades, may ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The global manufacturing recession continued in April, with rates of contraction for output, new orders and employment all showing what are effectively sharp contractions by historical standards. The rates of contraction however moderated almost universally, and this is now the fourth month where this moderation has been evident. Thus, while the contraction is far from over, it is reasonable to say the it has stabilised, and the big issue is at what rate it will hold in the months to come. The initial shock has now been absorbed, but that is a far cry from saying that we already have the worst behind us. The general deterioration in employment conditions raises the concern that as the impact of the government stimulus "shocks" in their turn wane, and as national banking systems come under the impact of the additional loan defaults the growing unemployment and falling ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /Data from the JPMorgan March Global PMI provide solid evidence that the speed of contraction in global manufacturing is lessening at the present time. Indexes tracking trends in output and new orders generally continued to rise across the globe, and are in general now up significantly from the series lows registered at the end of 2008. However, both the output and the new orders indexes remained at very low levels, all still signalling continuing contraction and well below those consistent with anything resembling a recovery in either component.br /br /The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – which provides a single figure snapshot of operating conditions across the planet – posted 37.2 in March. Although substantially below the no-change mark of 50.0, the PMI was up for the third month in row and at its highest level since last October. The vast majority of the national ...

Just following up briefly on my last post, as anticipated by the PMI report India's industrial production growth bounced back again in September. Output at factories, utilities and mines rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier after a revised 1.4 percent gain in August, according to data from the Central Statistical Organization today (Wednesday).India's factory output rose 4.9 percent in the six months to September from a year earlier, less than half the 9.5 percent pace recorded in 2007, according to today's report.And the expansion in Indian manufacturing looks set to continue into October according to the latest ABN AMRO Bank purchasing managers' index (PMI) report. The index, which isbased on a survey of 500 companies, slumped to a seasonally adjusted 52.2 in October, its lowest since the survey began in April 2005 and sharply below September's ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona India is in the middle of a storm at the moment, there can be no doubt about that. But the important point to note is that this storm is not of India's making. The financial turmoil in a number of key developed economies, and above all the United States, is sending shock waves across the global economy, and as is normal, when the earth trembles, it is the most fragile who notice it most. India's economy may be fragile in the sense that it is very vulnerable to what is colloqially known as global risk sentiment, but it is not fragile in terms of being susceptible to having its growth trajectory knocked completely off course. India may be shaken, but her economy will not be broken. Emerging Market Bonds Emerging-market bonds had their worst week in four years this week as the deepening credit crisis raised global recession concerns ...