There are many institutional S&P 500 forecasts in the media for 2009, generally ranging from 850 to 1100 with some outliers on each side, but seldom is the underlying detail provided. One of the more common methods of estimation involves normalization of earnings times a reasonable multiple based on history.

This article will attempt to back into some of the leading institutional projections using normalized earnings and historically experienced multiples.

Key Historical Index Price Levels:

The S&P stands now at 924. It had a low of 741 last November and 666 in March. The high in 2007 was approximately 1575. The low in 2002-2003 was approximately 770.

Institutional Estimates:

We cataloged a number of institutional forecasts in a recent article. The forecasts here come from that article plus a few newer ones. Estimate publication dates range from early May through now (issued within approximately a month).

Goldman this week