“I think stocks are topping out, commodities are topping out and the dollar is making a bottom,” says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and author of “Conquer the Crash“.

According to Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, Prechter also makes the seemingly counterintuitive argument that the dollar will rally because there’s so much debt, rather than being doomed because of it. “If the economy turns sour again in 2010, as he predicts, Prechter says the dollar will benefit as more dollar-denominated IOUs get called by creditors seeking to shore up their own balance sheets, as was the case in 2008.

“A sustained rally in the dollar would have devastating consequences for stocks, emerging-market assets, high-yield debt and commodities. But gold might be the exception, because it represents ‘real money’ and more people are questioning the global paper money system, Prechter says.”

...

“The US is an empire in decline, according to Niall Ferguson, Harvard professor and author of The Ascent of Money,” reported Aaron Task of Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker.

“People have predicted the end of America in the past and been wrong,” Ferguson concedes. “But let’s face it: If you’re trying to borrow $9 trillion to save your financial system …and already half your public debt held by foreigners, it’s not really the conduct of rising empires, is it? Excessive debt is usually a predictor of subsequent trouble.”

The report highlights Ferguson as saying America today is comparable to Britain circa 1900: a dominant empire underestimating the rise of a new power. In Britain’s case back then it was Germany; in America’s case today, it’s China.

“When China’s economy is equal in size to that of the U.S., which could come as early as 2027

...

Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, recently did a wide-ranging interview with Aaron Task and Henry Blodget of Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker. The video clips are must-see footage for any serious investor.

Part 1: Bullish today, Marc Faber is “highly confident” the future will be very bleak.

Part 2: Buy stocks because US dollars will be “worthless,” says Faber.

Part 3: Faber: Emerging market economies will challenge and surpass the west.

Part 4: Faber: Ken Fisher is wrong! America already has way too much debt.

Source: Aaron Task and Henry Blodget, Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker (here, here, here and here), September 22, 2009.

...

The holiday-shortened week witnessed relatively few news and economic reports, but the major US stock indices nevertheless scored their first five-week stretch of gains since October 2007.

A mixed bag of video clips was produced. First up is Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian, saying, “Fundamentally we are in a volatile journey to what we call the new normal, the new destination. The world is changing.” Also featuring prominently are a series of must-see interviews by Aaron Task (Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker) with George Soros about a wide-ranging number of issues.

Spicing up the week’s video footage was a fairly lively debate between UBS’s George Magnus and the G7’s Len Komileva, with another interesting discussion coming from Nouriel Roubini and Goldman’s Jim O’Neill.

Also make sure to watch Argentinean economist Adrian Salbuchi’s video clips, putting the financial collapse in context by referring to historical examples from Argentina.

...

I attended a Richard Russell tribute dinner in San Diego on Saturday. This function, in honor of the 84-year old Russell’s 50 years as a newsletter writer, was attended by almost 500 people, including the likes of John Mauldin, Robert Precter, Ian McAvity, the Aden Sisters, Ivan Boesky, Bill Bonner, Bert Dohmen and a host of others.

There was a brief question and answer period. One visitor asked him what he would do if he was running the country. In classic Russell fashion, the venerable analyst answered, “I’d do nothing. I’d let it happen. I’d let the bear market do its work.”

For the rest, Aaron Task of Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker pulled me aside for a short video interview and the paragraphs below are from his

...

Posted Apr 06, 2009 10:00am EDT Aaron Task

The bank stress tests currently underway are “a complete sham,” says William Black, a former senior bank regulator and S&L prosecutor, and currently an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri - Kansas City. “It’s a Potemkin model. Built to fool people.” Like many others, Black believes the “worst case scenario” used in the stress test don’t go far enough.

He detailed these and related concerns in a recent interview with Naked Capitalism. But Black, who was counsel to the Federal Home Loan Bank Board during the S&L Crisis, says the program’s failings go way beyond such technical issues. “There is no real purpose [of the stress test] other than to fool us. To make us chumps,” Black says. Noting policymakers have long stated the problem is a lack

...

Posted Apr 06, 2009 10:00am EDT Aaron Task

The bank stress tests currently underway are “a complete sham,” says William Black, a former senior bank regulator and S&L prosecutor, and currently an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri - Kansas City. “It’s a Potemkin model. Built to fool people.” Like many others, Black believes the “worst case scenario” used in the stress test don’t go far enough.

He detailed these and related concerns in a recent interview with Naked Capitalism. But Black, who was counsel to the Federal Home Loan Bank Board during the S&L Crisis, says the program’s failings go way beyond such technical issues. “There is no real purpose [of the stress test] other than to fool us. To make us chumps,” Black says. Noting policymakers have long stated the problem is a lack

...

a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_wlx0GQEcH6Q/SZ5MOf_ci2I/AAAAAAAAANE/_ceel5P4sH8/s1600-h/2963474098_f64ecc6e3c.jpg”img style=”float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 210px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_wlx0GQEcH6Q/SZ5MOf_ci2I/AAAAAAAAANE/_ceel5P4sH8/s320/2963474098_f64ecc6e3c.jpg” border=”0″ alt=”" id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5304761223078513506″ //abr /divFresh from the West Coast and a great ski trip in Vail CO, it’s time to head east and get to NYC for the annual Traders Expo at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square./divdivbr //divdivLast year’s event featured a great presentation by one of our customers-turned-evangelists, Dave Mabe of StockTickr fame. Here is Dave himself talking about his presentation: a href=”http://blog.stocktickr.com/2008/02/08/presentation-on-automation-at-traders-expo/”http://blog.stocktickr.com/2008/02/08/presentation-on-automation-at-traders-expo//a/divdivbr //divdivThis year there are even more presenters who will directly or indirectly discuss how Trade-Ideas powers their idea generation and market scanning capabilities:/divdivulliGreg Capra, Pristine (a href=”http://www.moneyshow.com/nyot/wBios.asp?id=10842OTE”Expo schedule/a)/liliOliver Velez, VCM (a href=”http://www.moneyshow.com/nyot/wBios.asp?id=1371SPK”Expo schedule/a)/liliTodd Slawson, Scottrade (a href=”http://www.moneyshow.com/nyot/wBios.asp?id=762125A”Expo schedule/a)/liliFolks at AcquireMedia (a href=”http://www.moneyshow.com/nyot/exhDetail.asp?coid=ACQUIREamp;webid=7480amp;hasProfile=true”Booth info/a)/li/ul/divdivI’m looking forward to catching up with many at the Expo and around town.  I’ll be particularly interested in seeing:/divdivulliMichael Bellafiore, SMB Capital (wine buddy and Trade-Ideas fan) (a …

This post is a guest contribution by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson*, author of Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets and director of research at Investment Management Associates.

The stock market has dropped. Corporate profits have collapsed. And profit margins have reverted toward the mean. What is next?

Before I dive into the discussion, let me explain the chart below, which I named appropriately, “The pain of mean reversion.”

I looked at reported earnings for S&P 500 and compared them to the “average case” earnings scenario. In the “average case” scenario I took reported earnings of S&P 500 in the early 1990s and grew them at 6% – an average growth rate of GDP over the last century which happens

…

2 part series - Art Laffer, how sad to say your economic views only have a life of 9 months. Good to see Schiff get his dues even if the past 4-5 months has been rough on his patch of hideouts - outside of US Treasuries no one can find a place to make money on the long side in "buy and hold". I am more interested in the economic thesis since the stock market has rewarded no one... Unlike most, who chuckled snidely as he made his predictions in 06-07, I was taking furious notes :) [Sep 12: Peter Schiff on Fannie/Freddie] [Aug 3: Peter Schiff July 28 2008 on Glenn Beck] [Jun 2: US News & World Report -Peter Schiff's Worst Case Scenario] [Oct 2, 2007: Schiff - Housing Prices to Collapse] Speaking of Laffer, ...