This is an amusing story from today's Wall Street Journal; but before we go through it let's review 2 specific type of "conventional wisdom" that was shoved down our throat by pundits in the late fall through winter - the "follow the smart money" thesis. We've had call after call after call (after call) about "it's time to load up financials since it cannot get worse and the bottom is in"' this started last summer in fact. All those pundits have frankly destroyed their clients accounts. They have used multiple reasons over the quarters. but one flavor of the day was "smart money is buying, so you should to".... smart money being mostly Arab money (but some Asian money as well). In fact after a sell off in November 2007, we set the stage for a December rally when Citibank sold a stake (at terrible ...

Before each of my market posts there is a buy/sell call (at owner's risk!). At the start of the month I usually try to call the flavour for the coming month based on overall market conditions; which I have marked on the chart below. What is clear is having waited so long for the market to roll over (basically spent most of 2007 waiting), I jumped too early on the bullish bandwagon this year. The past 3-months have been good for bulls. Like in late 2006 there is a reasonable chance June will be another upward month. However, it is unusual to get sequence runs beyond 4 months. Look at the early 2006 decline, late 2006 advance, early 2007 advance and the late 2007/early 08 decline; all lasted around 4 months. What we are likely to see after June is a period of sideways ...

S&P has tried and failed to overcome the 1400 level consistently over the last couple of months. Today, it overcame 1400 for a bit only to fall back. in fact, as I write this, the rally that has lasted most of the day has completely evaporated and S&P is now lower on the day. For the last week, I have looked at my holdings again and again wondering if I should sell my long positions or trim down. Many of my stocks have been steady and forming nice bottoms or bases (Omniture, Marchex) and some have just been going up at any sign of a broader market rally. Visa, Potash, RIMM, Apple and Nintendo have all weathered the pull backs exceptionally well and I am torn whether to hold on and ride out the bear or to sell and buy at lower levels. But then I have never been good ...