We've discussed this many times in the past [Jan 21: A Tour Through the Middle East] and as I wrote in January While we wring our collective hands about how the infrastructure companies are going to lose all their business as crude drops from $100 to $75, and projects will be cancelled due to their rich customers actually giving a rat's behind if crude is $100 or $75 let's take a look at reality. I noticed a story in the NY Times this weekend on Saudi Arabia - so I'd like to overlay that with just a snapshot of what is going on in some of the other countries in this part of the world - the Kuwaits, the Oman's, the Abu Dhabi's, the Qatar's.... ... because perhaps I think most of us still are very inward looking as Americans and do not realize ...

Before we get to the story let me refresh my thoughts... first I said this was a potential threat a few times, most recently in [Apr 23: Potash hits $1000 on Spot Market] I wrote If Western governments have any moral backbone they will at least jawbone pulling biofuel subsidies... this would cause backlash reaction in fertilizer even though biofuels are just a small piece of the puzzle. (again this is a minor risk at this point, especially with US elections coming but maybe Europe will react first?) While the biofuel situation is not the major driving factor of agflation that does not matter - perception is everything and go back to point (b) a lot of new investors to a hot sector who know little about the long term situation and just are going by sound bites "rice riots" "fertilizer is hot" "Neil Cavuto even likes fertilizer" ...