Agrium (AGU) the smallest of the 3 major potash producers in Canpotex is out this morning with increased guidance - expect the same from Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT). This is leading the sector higher with AGU up 9% in early trading - keep in mind unlike the other 2 names mentioned, Agrium has a large retail component. Essentially they've taken their own lowball guidance up by around 80 cents, and now are firmly over the analysts $2.50. Looks like analysts are *still* behind the curve even after making huge upward revisions the past 60-90 days, once they saw the writing on the wall - writing we were urging them to see last fall [Oct 23: Analysts Still Doubting the Fertilizer Stocks] I wroteFolks, I am not a full time fertilizer analyst working for a major brokerage (in fact the ...

Much like I did with Ctrip.com (CTRP) last week [May 2: Cutting Ctrip.com to Almost Nothing] I am going to cut these 3 positions to almost nil; they are small positions at this time as I cut them at lower prices, but the gains (% wise) have been huge, and the stocks are not near any major support. Fundamentals remain strong in all the stocks so there is no change in that area. Further, this does not mean the stocks need to pullback anytime soon but consistent with my strategy, I am simply going to take the last of these gains off the table and wait for meaningful pullbacks, after some staggering moves. These positions are in the 0.5-0.7% range of the portfolio, so I am essentially dropping them to what I call "holding positions" aka tiny positions (0.1% or 0.2%), but not selling them out ...

I don't own these 2 names directly but do own peers, and these are bellweathers for their sectors so I thought I'd post them. One thing to note today - despite great numbers, the stocks are not reacting. Hence, we could be prone for a pullback shortly in these names. When stocks do not react to great news, that is a potential change in character, just like when stocks shake off bad news and go up. The charts in "commodities" despite some pullback, are still quite overextended and yesterday's call of Goldman $150-$200 oil [Goldman Sachs: Gasoline Not Driving Oil Price - Oil Going to $150-$200] would be the perfect catalyst to mark a near term top... Despite my Kool Aid infusion I am still quite bearish and I view this period akin to Sep/Oct 2007 when we partook in the foolishness to make money but ...