We are maintaining our Buy recommendation on National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV) shares, given its strong leverage to the current rig construction cycle. Despite the recent commodity-price weakness, demand continues to remain robust. We believe that oil prices will need to drop significantly from current levels to materially impact the outlook for oilfield activity levels.

The company’s growing international footprint adds to its positive prospects. In the most recent quarter, the company booked $2.2 billion in new orders, bringing its total backlog to a record $10.8 billion, highlighting the high level of earnings visibility, going forward.

The improving outlook for the domestic onshore market further adds to the company’s favorable prospects. The merger with Grant Prideco has transformed the company into an oilfield machinery powerhouse enjoying a very strong cyclical leverage.

A sustained and meaningful pullback in crude oil and natural gas prices will impact the outlook for oilfield activity levels. Particularly significant in the near term is a slowdown in land drilling activities in the U.S. in response to weak commodity prices. Additionally, growing rig-manufacturing activities in emerging markets like China remains a long-term competitive challenge.

Approximately 91% of the company’s total backlog at the end of first-quarter 2008 pertained to international markets. Growing international presence exposes the company s operations to geo-political risks.

Read the full analyst report on NOV

“NOV” Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
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