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How to Evaluate Backtesting Programs

Source: http://marketmovers.blogspot.com/2009/04/how-to-evaluate-backtesting-programs.html
Posted on Monday, April 6th, 2009 | In Investing Lessons, Stocks to Watch
Contributed by: David Aferiat (http://www.trade-ideas.com/) -

I came across this request for information on my Twitter tube:divblockquote”Evaluating backtesting programs: MetaStock, Traders Studio, Ami Broker, Strata Searc, Ninja Trader, Trade Ideas. Any thoughts?”, @milktrader/blockquote/divdivSource: a href=”http://twitter.com/milktrader/status/1456777201″http://twitter.com/milktrader/status/1456777201/abr //divdivbr //divdivEach of these applications and even others not on this list, like WealthLab Pro or DIY Excel, will have advantages over the other.  Some major, some insignificant. It all depends on the type of trader you are.  If I started praising how good a href=”http://www.trade-ideas.com/OddsMaker/”The OddsMaker/a was, you’d assume I was just trying to sell you something.  Allow me to be more indirect and subtle.  I’ll just list the items you ought to consider when you choosing a backtesting tool.  I’ll let you decide if The OddsMaker is right for you./divdivbr //divdivspan class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-size:large;”Elements of Comparison/span/span/divdivolliWhich asset classes can be backtested? Equities? Forex? Options? Etc./liliOn what basis of time is historical price information used in the backtest? To the nearest 5 minute candle? 1 minute candle? Time amp; Sales tick data?/liliMust the trader know the universe of stocks to be backtested a priori? Or can the backtest be applied to a pattern or event (vs. a predetemined stock or basket of stocks)?/liliWhat windows of time during the market can be backtested? Morning session? Lunch? Afternoon session? Trader-defined periods/Anytime?/liliWhat options are there for backtesting the exit condition? Price (i.e., stop loss, profit target)? An alert or event?  Time in trade (i.e., a hold for 5min or 5days)?/liliHow well does the output inform your next possible trade? (i.e., does it provide a win percentage, net gain amount, average winning trade, average losing trade, confidence score, etc.)?/li/ol/divdivOk.  Here is how The OddsMaker would score:/divdivolliEquities, Indices, ETFs. No Forex, no option contracts./liliTime amp; Sales tick data/liliNo pre-knowledge of specific stocks needed. The OddsMaker is an event-based backtesting tool./liliTrader-defined periods/Anytimebr //liliAll items mentioned/liliAll items mentioned plus a daily detail report/li/oldivGo and judge the other apps based on these elements or others you can think of.  Then give The OddsMaker and each other application a score (say 1 to 10) on how well they answered to these elements. Give a 10 to the application that scored the best./div/divdivbr //divdivWhat kind of trader you are depends on how much significance or weight you put on certain decision criteria.  If I had 6 criteria or elements of comparison among backtesting applications and gave you a dollar to spread among them, in what order would you list them with the first item getting the largest share of the dollar and the last item getting the least? Once you do that take each application and score them along each of the elements of comparison.br //divdivbr //divdivNow you have a way of scoring each application./divdivbr //divdivTake the weight of each criteria and multiply it by the score you give that application for each criteria.  Add up your scores and the application with the highest number is your choice./divdivbr //divdivbr //divdiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/9446784-6455155529255052759?l=marketmovers.blogspot.com’//div

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About David Aferiat (http://www.trade-ideas.com/)
David brings more than 11 years of experience in trading, consulting, software, utilities, capital markets, and consumer product industries. Working with senior officers and key decision makers in the board room, finance, HR, marketing and trading functions, he has advised both public and privately held companies with revenues ranging from $20 million to $14 billion. Work at Trade-Ideas taps experience in business development, customer acquisition and retention, corporate strategy as well as energy trading and marketing. David holds dual Bachelor of Arts degrees in Economics and French from the University of Texas at Austin and a Masters of Business Administration degree from the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University. In four years Trade Ideas has grown to over 35,000 accounts in 19 different countries. Hedge funds, Asset Managers, Institutions, Online Brokers, and direct access traders use the software as a premier idea generation, risk management, and decision support tool.

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