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Great Earnings Season Coming to an End – Earnings Trends

Source: http://www.zacks.com/commentary/12756/Great+Earnings+Season+Coming+to+an+End+-+Earnings+Trends
Posted on Monday, November 16th, 2009 | In Investing Lessons, Stocks to Watch
Contributed by: Dirk Van Dijk (http://www.zacks.com/) -


Key Points:

•    Earnings Surprise Ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.35, almost double normal
•    Median Earnings Surprise  7.11%, very strong
•    Year over year Earnings Growth Ratio (# Pos Growth/# Neg Growth) at 0.78
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.39
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.41
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.4%, below what those same 462 firms reported a year ago, and 11.3% above what they earned in the 2Q09
•    Total S&P 500 Revenues reported so far down 11.2% year over year, up 3.8% from 2Q09
•    2009 Earnings Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 now 3.25, up from 2.05 last week
•    2010 ratio at 2.09, down slightly from 2.14 last week
•    S&P500 expected to earn $572.9 billion in 2008, $707.7 billion in 2010
•    Bottom Up estimates: $62.48 for 2009, $77.11 for 2010
•    Top Down estimates: $54.38 for 2009, $70.05 for 2010

Welcome to the new Earnings Trends. We have decided to start focusing our analysis of the S&P 500 based on Zacks' own sector groupings rather than the S&P GICS sectors. There are 16 Zacks sectors and only 10 GICS sectors, so the new groupings will result in better granularity of the data. The old way simply grouped too many very different companies together. In addition, we for the first time are presenting top-line as well as bottom-line expectations and surprise information. This is very much a work in progress, and we will be adding additional information, tables and perhaps even some graphs over the next few months.

It’s almost time to close the books on a fantastic earnings season. With over 90% of reports in, there have been 353 which have exceeded expectations while only 66 have fallen short, a ratio of 5.35. While it is true that most companies will normally try to under-promise and over-deliver, this quarter the beats are beating the misses by about twice the normal margin of 3:1.

Nor have all the surprises only been by a penny or two, but there have been lots of companies that simply crushed the earnings estimates.  The median surprise is a very high 7.11%. Over the last five years, a median surprise of about 3.0% has been normal.

Part of the reason is that expectations were set very low going into the earnings season. For most companies, their earnings are still below year-ago levels, just not as far down as people thought they would be. Only 202 firms have posted positive year-over-year growth versus 259 which have fallen short of year-ago levels -- a ratio of 0.78.

The disparity between firms beating estimates but having negative year-over-year earnings growth is particularly noticeable in Tech, where the earnings surprise ratio is an awesome 8.50. However, the growth ratio (# of firms with positive growth/# of firms with negative growth) is just 0.60. Energy’s surprise ratio is not quite as high, at 3.38, but the disparity to its growth ratio, at just 0.05, is extreme. Staples and Medical have been both growing earnings and beating expectations.

On the top line, it has also been a successful season so far relative to expectations, but in terms of actual year-over-year growth it has been downright ugly. The total revenues of the 462 firms that have already reported are 11.2% below year-ago levels. A total of 253 firms have reported higher than expected revenues, versus 182 that have disappointed, for a ratio of 1.39. On the other hand, only 135 actually had higher sales than a year ago, versus 326 with lower revenues, a ratio of 0.41. Put another way, only 29.2% of all firms reporting so far have had higher sales than a year ago.

In other words, cost-cutting has been the major force driving earnings, and earnings surprise. However, the costs to one company are either the revenues of another company, or someone’s paycheck, which is then spent to create revenues for firms. The bottom-up data coming out of all these individual firms seems to confirm what we have been getting from the macro statistics from the government. The economy is growing due to increases in productivity: higher GDP with fewer workers.

However, the strategy seems to be working as earnings are coming in much better than expected, and analysts have responded by increasing earnings estimates for 2009. The estimate increases are widespread across sectors, with five sectors seeing more than five increases for each cut. No sector is seeing more cuts than increases. For the S&P 500 as a whole the revisions ratio now stands at 3.25, its highest level in a long time and in distinct contrast to earlier in the year when it fell below 0.15 at one point.  The better than expected earnings are translating into estimate increases for 2010 as well as 2009, with a revisions ratio of 2.09 for next year.

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
•    Season almost over, 462, or 92.4% of reports in
•    Data presented reflects only firms that have reported so far
•    Reports so far extremely positive relative to expectations
•    Earnings Surprise ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.35
•    Medical almost perfect with a ratio of 35 to 1, Staples strong with a ratio of 11.3
•    Median Earnings Surprise  7.11%, very strong reading
•    Eight sectors total done, a few Retail and Tech firms yet to report
•    Year over year Earnings Growth ratio (# Positive Growth/# Negative Growth) at 0.78
•    Massive positive surprises in cyclical Construction, Industrial and Discretionary sectors

In evaluating the data presented here, keep the % reported in mind, for some sectors the sample size is extremely small. The move to the 16 Zacks sectors means that even when all reports are in, some of the sectors will still have relatively few firms in them. For firms with only a few reports in, the median surprise will be very volatile as new firms are added to the sample.

Overall, two small sectors, Conglomerates and Business Services, appear to have the most impressive performance so far this quarter on the surprise front. Among the larger sectors, strong arguments could be made for Staples having the best surprise profile, although Industrials are also in contention. 

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
Income Surprises Yr/Yr
Growth
%
Reported
Surprise
Median
EPS
Surp
Pos
EPS
Surp
Neg
#
Grow
Pos
#
Grow
Neg
Consumer Staples 1.03% 84.09% 10.87 34 3 25 12
Consumer Discretionary -14.07% 100.00% 12.10 22 5 8 22
Retail/Wholesale 2.54% 75.56% 5.41 27 5 19 15
Medical 3.32% 93.18% 6.09 35 1 32 9
Auto -16.45% 100.00% 1.54 3 2 2 4
Basic Materials -47.72% 100.00% 6.73 14 4 4 16
Industrial Products -25.90% 90.91% 13.92 19 1 9 11
Construction 66.67% 81.82% 28.57 6 2 4 5
Conglomerates -21.64% 100.00% 16.41 8 0 1 8
Computer and Tech -10.93% 87.95% 7.69 51 6 27 45
Aerospace -59.63% 100.00% 6.74 8 2 4 6
Oils and Energy -62.76% 97.56% 5.20 29 9 2 38
Finance 416.90% 100.00% 5.41 56 16 39 39
Utilities 5.56% 100.00% 5.63 27 8 23 14
Transportation -36.21% 100.00% 3.09 7 2 1 9
Business Service 6.73% 88.89% 11.80 7 0 2 6
S&P -11.42% 92.40% 7.11 353 66 202 259


Sales Surprises
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.39
•    Staples missing on Sales even as they beat on Earnings
•    Tech looks terrific, 3.29 sales surprise ratio
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.41
•    Most Tech firms have declining sales, but less of a drop than expected
•    Only 29.2% of all firms reporting so far have higher revenues than last year

Sales Surprises
Sales Surprises Yr/Yr
Growth
%
Reported
Surprise
Median
Sales
Surp
Pos
Sales
Surp
Neg
#
Grow
Pos
#
Grow
Neg
Consumer Staples -7.44% 84.09% -0.12 15 21 8 29
Consumer Discretionary -10.07% 100.00% 0.92 21 9 7 23
Retail/Wholesale 1.75% 75.56% 0.48 21 13 19 15
Medical 4.85% 93.18% 1.01 30 11 33 7
Auto -11.94% 100.00% 1.08 6 0 0 6
Basic Materials -28.79% 100.00% 0.25 11 9 1 19
Industrial Products -18.55% 90.91% -0.06 10 10 1 19
Construction -27.28% 81.82% -0.88 4 5 0 9
Conglomerates -16.29% 100.00% 0.45 5 3 1 8
Computer and Tech -5.39% 87.95% 2.47 56 17 16 57
Aerospace 4.64% 100.00% -1.73 3 7 7 3
Oils and Energy -40.56% 97.56% 0.42 22 18 3 37
Finance -31.87% 100.00% 1.23 33 19 33 44
Utilities -18.59% 100.00% -12.59 8 30 3 35
Transportation -19.93% 100.00% -0.36 3 7 0 10
Business Service -6.73% 88.89% 0.84 5 3 3 5
S&P -11.21% 92.40% 0.50 253 182 135 326


Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
•    Massive 378.0% growth in Financials due to low year-ago base, earnings up 5.2% from 2Q09
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.4% below what those same 444 firms reported a year ago, 11.3% above what they earned in the 2Q09
•    Going into the quarter, a decline of 23% was forecast for total year-over-year earnings
•    Materials down hard year over year in second and third quarters, but expects huge rebound in the 4Q
•    Total net earnings in 4Q expected to be more than double year ago, mostly due to Finance turnaround

Reported Growth: Total Net Income
Income Growth Sequential Q4/Q3 E Sequential Q3/Q2 A Year over Year
3Q 09 A
Year over Year
4Q 09 E
Year over Year
2Q 09 A
Consumer Staples -16.29% 4.87% 1.03% -1.76% 6.47%
Consumer Discretionary 0.41% 24.55% -14.07% 3.68% -18.18%
Retail/Wholesale 15.80% 0.58% 2.54% 6.32% -3.38%
Medical -83.11% 5.46% 3.32% -6.92% 1.45%
Auto -43.93% 201.81% -16.45% 25.35% 744.07%
Basic Materials -19.80% 50.30% -47.72% 476.20% -69.62%
Industrial Products -25.00% 20.32% -25.90% -25.34% -43.38%
Construction - to + 62.96% 66.67% 68.32% -167.92%
Conglomerates -13.30% -1.66% -21.64% -9.30% -29.50%
Computer and Tech 17.84% 12.70% -10.93% 19.89% -21.38%
Aerospace 150.53% -60.94% -59.63% 5.44% -1.53%
Oils and Energy 5.55% 25.99% -62.76% -28.33% -66.99%
Finance -24.83% 3.14% 416.90% - to + -4.93%
Utilities -37.58% 46.82% 5.56% -0.89% -2.02%
Transportation 4.20% 11.58% -36.21% -29.07% -35.44%
Business Service -13.83% 12.48% 6.73% 2.45% -1.93%
S&P -4.84% 11.30% -11.42% 110.16% -25.89%


Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues
•    Total S&P 500 Revenues down 11.21% year over year, up 3.77% from 2Q09
•    Year-over-year revenue expected to turn positive in 4Q with 0.39% increase
•    Consumer Discretionary revenue growth up 7.3% from 2Q09, but down 10.1% from year ago
•    Three sectors posting positive year-over-year revenue growth, 13 sectors negative


Reported Growth: Total Revenues
Sales Growth Sequential Q4/Q3 E Sequential Q3/Q2 A Year over Year
3Q 09 A
Year over Year
4Q 09 E
Year over Year
2Q 09 A
Consumer Staples -6.16% -0.70% -7.44% -7.42% -8.98%
Consumer Discretionary 4.84% 7.28% -10.07% -4.93% -7.93%
Retail/Wholesale 8.59% 1.57% 1.75% 4.41% 2.54%
Medical 3.51% 0.90% 4.85% 7.68% 3.72%
Auto -2.67% 11.99% -11.94% -0.80% -22.10%
Basic Materials 0.42% 5.31% -28.79% -3.01% -31.02%
Industrial Products 0.40% 1.57% -18.55% -12.30% -20.94%
Construction -1.89% 5.33% -27.28% -18.02% -32.11%
Conglomerates 4.67% -0.78% -16.29% -9.29% -18.12%
Computer and Tech 6.65% 2.96% -5.39% 2.90% -6.41%
Aerospace 6.70% -2.14% 4.64% 12.61% 0.00%
Oils and Energy -5.50% 11.15% -40.56% -10.05% -39.17%
Finance -15.17% 2.27% -31.87% 23.89% 3.56%
Utilities 12.68% 10.93% -18.59% 6.81% -4.62%
Transportation 3.47% 4.63% -19.93% -10.18% -17.82%
Business Service -1.56% 3.00% -6.73% -3.58% -8.17%
S&P -0.59% 3.77% -11.21% 0.39% -12.67%


Annual Total Net Income Growth

•    Total S&P 500 Net Income in 2009 expected to be 5.0% below 2008 levels
•    Total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 23.5% in 2010, 13.3% further in 2011
•    Data for 2011 is still thin, so take with a grain of salt
•    Staples, Medical and Business Service only sectors to see positive growth for 2009, although Finance is moving from a loss to a profit.  Autos to see much smaller loss in 2009, move to profit in 2010

Annual Total Net Income Growth
EPS Growth 2008 2009 2010 2011
Consumer Staples -2.51% 1.19% 11.58% 7.44%
Consumer Discretionary 6.94% -9.35% 11.06% 15.71%
Retail/Wholesale 7.05% -3.82% 11.66% 13.54%
Medical 9.12% 2.50% 8.98% 8.68%
Auto + to - -84.86% - to + 101.49%
Basic Materials -12.35% -62.22% 88.81% 25.71%
Industrial Products 7.49% -36.95% 21.14% -14.99%
Construction + to - -93.57% - to + 154.28%
Conglomerates -10.99% -33.12% -0.32% 21.55%
Computer and Tech 10.17% -5.39% 19.31% -11.83%
Aerospace 13.29% -16.60% 19.65% 6.88%
Oils and Energy 20.42% -57.19% 47.60% 19.58%
Finance + to - - to +% 51.71% 46.18%
Utilities 5.84% -1.00% 10.08% 10.54%
Transportation 3.71% -32.13% 23.23% 18.94%
Business Service 14.27% 4.16% 14.38% 22.51%
S&P -22.72% -5.01% 23.53% 13.31%



Annual Total Revenue Growth

•    Total S&P 500 Revenue in 2009 expected to be 9.4% below 2008 levels
•    Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 6.7% in 2010
•    For 2009, revenues fall more than earnings, for 2010, earnings rise faster than sales, both mean big margin expansion
•    Energy, Autos, Materials and Construction see biggest revenue declines in 2009, but will see large increases in 2010

Annual Total Revenue Growth
Sales Growth 2008 2009 2010
Consumer Staples 1.74% -8.92% 4.72%
Consumer Discretionary 5.22% -9.52% 3.62%
Retail/Wholesale 6.20% 4.02% 5.23%
Medical 7.73% 4.76% 5.00%
Auto -8.23% -25.27% 5.70%
Basic Materials 11.50% -25.22% 12.45%
Industrial Products 10.76% -16.49% 5.86%
Construction -25.81% -22.90% 10.33%
Conglomerates 6.32% -14.10% 0.06%
Computer and Tech 6.60% -3.71% 5.95%
Aerospace 2.26% 6.50% 1.86%
Oils and Energy 24.34% -37.03% 23.21%
Finance -22.57% 7.10% -1.11%
Utilities 11.81% -2.99% 9.43%
Transportation 8.09% -16.31% 7.07%
Business Service 9.14% -9.86% 4.22%
S&P 4.21% -9.44% 6.67%


Revisions: Earnings

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009

•    Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 edges down to 3.25, from 3.26
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2009
•    Five sectors seem more than 5 estimate increases for each cut
•    No sector seeing estimates cut on balance
•    Industrials seeing very large estimate increases
•    Business Service and Conglomerates lead, Staples and Tech also strong
•    Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates climbs to 3.18 from 2.01
•    Total number of revisions (4 week total) up to 4,810 from 4,614 last week (4.2%)
•    Increases up to 3,677 from 3,534 (4.0%), cuts up to 1,133 from 1,084 (4.5%)
•    Total Revisions activity approaching peak for this earnings season

Analysts are responding to better-than-expected 3Q earnings by raising 2009 estimates almost across the board. Unlike the data presented above for the surprises, the revisions data is for all 500 firms in the index. Total revisions activity has picked up dramatically, and will continue to do so over the next week or two, but we are getting towards peak activity..

The broad increases in earnings estimates seems to reflect a much better short-term outlook for the economy. Note that some of the most cyclical areas such as Retailers, Materials and Autos are seeing a large preponderance of upward over downward earnings revisions, and that most of the firms in those sectors are seeing their consensus estimates increase.

On the other hand, the defensive Staples sector has a very high revisions ratio of 8.55, so it’s not just the cyclicals. Then again given the great performance by the Staples on the surprise front, a strong estimate revisions performance is not surprising

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
Sector %Ch
Curr
Fiscal
Yr
Est - 4
wks
#
Firms
Up
#
Firms
Down
#
Ests
Up
#
Ests
Down
Revisions
Ratio
Firms
up/down
Consumer Staples 2.56 31 8 248 29 8.55 3.88
Consumer Discretionary 4.54 24 6 205 63 3.25 4.00
Retail/Wholesale 2.82 36 7 341 51 6.69 5.14
Medical 3.49 31 11 413 133 3.11 2.82
Auto 13.62 5 1 32 15 2.13 5.00
Basic Materials 4.63 15 5 141 40 3.53 3.00
Industrial Products 17.26 17 4 158 39 4.05 4.25
Construction 2.69 5 3 44 19 2.32 1.67
Conglomerates 2.18 8 0 80 10 8.00 NM
Computer and Tech 5.67 63 12 764 122 6.26 5.25
Aerospace -1.7 6 4 104 35 2.97 1.50
Oils and Energy 1.68 29 12 319 163 1.96 2.42
Finance 3.66 52 25 601 290 2.07 2.08
Utilities 0.8 25 13 100 70 1.43 1.92
Transportation 6.01 8 2 63 49 1.29 4.00
Business Service 3.35 8 0 64 5 12.80 NM
S&P 3.73 363 113 3677 1133 3.25 3.21


Revisions: Earnings

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010

•    Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 edges down to 2.09, from 2.15
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2010, as well as 2009
•    Eclectic mix of strong sectors, Staples lead, followed by Industrials
•    Ratio of firms with rising estimate to falling mean estimates at 2.05, up from 1.98 last week

For a large sector, the revisions ratio of 9.07 for the Industrials is extremely impressive, and would seem to support the idea that the economy is gaining some real traction. More than five times as many firms in the sector saw their mean estimate for 2010 rise over the last month than suffered a decline in their expectations.  Some of the firms in the sector that have seen double digit increases in both their mean estimate, and double digit numbers of estimate increases and had no cuts over the last month include Caterpillar (CAT), Eaton (ETN) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW). 

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
Sector %Ch
Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks
#
Firms Up
#
Firms Down
#
Ests Up
#
Ests Down
Revisions
Ratio
Firms up/down
Consumer Staples 3.75 32 7 201 36 5.58 4.57
Consumer Discretionary 2.45 23 7 168 58 2.90 3.29
Retail/Wholesale 2.78 35 9 284 67 4.24 3.89
Medical 1.80 27 15 270 179 1.51 1.80
Auto 4.96 3 3 23 14 1.64 1.00
Basic Materials 1.01 12 7 95 42 2.26 1.71
Industrial Products 7.94 15 5 131 28 4.68 3.00
Construction 3.97 7 2 37 24 1.54 3.50
Conglomerates 1.85 7 1 59 23 2.57 7.00
Computer and Tech 5.73 59 17 610 159 3.84 3.47
Aerospace -1.16 4 6 56 72 0.78 0.67
Oils and Energy 2.41 28 13 282 153 1.84 2.15
Finance -0.94 38 37 466 372 1.25 1.03
Utilities -0.72 17 20 78 89 0.88 0.85
Transportation -0.59 5 5 37 35 1.06 1.00
Business Service 2.45 6 2 49 12 4.08 3.00
S&P 2.41 318 156 2846 1363 2.09 2.04



Total Income and Share

•    S&P 500 expected to earn $572.9 billion in 2008, $707.7 billion in 2010
•    Excluding Financials, total net income expected to be down 19.5% in 2009
•    Energy Share of total earnings plunges to 10.7% in 2009 from 23.8% in 2008
•    Finance share of total earnings moves from deficit in 2008 to 11.9% in 2009, 14.7% in 2010
•    Medical share of total earnings far exceeds market cap share (index weight)

Total Income and Share
Sector Total
Net
Income
$ 2008
Total
Net
Income
$ 2009
Total
Net
Income
$ 2010
% Total
S&P Earn
2008
% Total
S&P Earn
2009
% Total
S&P
Earn
2010
% Total
S&P Mkt
Cap
Consumer Staples $54,721.79 $55,372.50 $61,783.36 9.07% 9.66% 8.73% 8.60%
Consumer Discretionary $34,582.03 $31,348.32 $34,815.87 5.73% 5.47% 4.92% 5.16%
Retail/Wholesale $56,510.43 $54,352.90 $60,692.48 9.37% 9.49% 8.58% 9.17%
Medical $84,799.49 $86,921.25 $94,725.07 14.06% 15.17% 13.38% 10.71%
Auto ($6,224.63) ($942.34) $3,677.49 -1.03% -0.16% 0.52% 0.75%
Basic Materials $21,488.79 $8,119.40 $15,330.18 3.56% 1.42% 2.17% 2.58%
Industrial Products $18,591.01 $11,721.15 $14,199.38 3.08% 2.05% 2.01% 2.28%
Construction ($3,093.90) ($199.08) $1,240.74 -0.51% -0.03% 0.18% 0.51%
Conglomerates $32,723.93 $21,887.03 $21,816.33 5.43% 3.82% 3.08% 3.65%
Computer and Tech $125,878.04 $119,096.93 $142,091.77 20.87% 20.79% 20.08% 22.00%
Aerospace $15,635.03 $13,040.38 $15,602.26 2.59% 2.28% 2.20% 1.71%
Oils and Energy $143,581.39 $61,470.60 $90,733.66 23.80% 10.73% 12.82% 11.71%
Finance ($23,683.74) $68,386.91 $103,752.07 -3.93% 11.94% 14.66% 14.75%
Utilities $30,484.75 $29,526.14 $31,758.31 5.05% 5.15% 4.49% 3.70%
Transportation $13,972.26 $9,483.63 $11,686.70 2.32% 1.66% 1.65% 2.11%
Business Service $3,201.77 $3,335.01 $3,814.72 0.53% 0.58% 0.54% 0.61%
S&P 500 $603,168.47 $572,920.74 $707,720.38 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%


P/E Ratios
•    S&P 500 trading at 17.4x 2009 earnings, or an earnings yield of 5.75%
•    Trading at 14.1x 2010, 12.4x 2011 earnings, or earnings yields of 7.09% and 8.06, respectively
•    Medical has lowest P/E based on 2009 earnings. Aerospace cheapest on 2010 earnings

P/E Ratios
P/E 2008 2009 2010 2011
Consumer Staples 15.6 15.5 13.9 12.9
Consumer Discretionary 14.8 16.4 14.7 12.7
Retail/Wholesale 16.2 16.8 15 13.2
Medical 12.6 12.3 11.2 10.4
Auto NM -79.3 20.3 10.1
Basic Materials 11.9 31.6 16.7 13.3
Industrial Products 12.2 19.4 16 18.8
Construction NM NM 41.1 16.1
Conglomerates 11.1 16.6 16.6 13.7
Computer and Tech 17.4 18.4 15.4 17.5
Aerospace 10.9 13 10.9 10.2
Oils and Energy 8.1 18.9 12.8 10.7
Finance NM 21.5 14.1 9.7
Utilities 12.1 12.5 11.6 10.7
Transportation 15 22.2 18 15.1
Business Service 19 18.2 15.9 13
S&P 500 16.5 17.4 14.1 12.4


Data in this report, unless stated otherwise, is through the close on Thursday 11/12/2009Zacks Investment Research

About Dirk Van Dijk (http://www.zacks.com/)
Dirk Van Dijk is a Senior Analyst at Zacks Investment Research. He writes the Earnings Trends article on Zacks.com which provides investors with an in-depth analysis of the markets, along with the profit performance of S&P 500 companies. Each week, this report identifies which S&P 500 sectors are showing strength and which are showing weakness. In addition, this valuable report highlights the most attractive sectors based on valuation and projected earnings growth. For more information, visit www.zacks.com or for the RSS Feed of this article: http://www.zacks.com/external/rss.php?f=34

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