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Furniture: The Worst May Be Over – Zacks Industry Rank Analysis

Source: http://www.zacks.com/commentary/12067/Furniture%3A+The+Worst+May+Be+Over+-+Zacks+Industry+Rank+Analysis
Posted on Wednesday, September 9th, 2009 | In Stocks to Watch
Contributed by: Charles Rotblut (http://www.zacks.com/) -

Two seemingly unlikely candidates are sitting near the top of the Zacks Industry Rank List: Furniture and Retail-Home Furnishings.

Given the macroeconomic environment, it would be reasonable to assume that people are not spending on furniture. The numbers support this assessment. La-Z-Boy (LZB) recently reported an 18.3% drop in quarterly net sales. Ethan Allen (ETH) experienced a 41% drop.

Yet, several analysts have recently raised their fiscal 2010 profit forecasts on both companies.

The Worst May Be Over

Though the furniture industry is certainly not healthy right now, there are signs that the worst of the storm may have passed.

Bottom-line results for both companies surpassed expectations. ETH’s positive surprise was its first in 4 quarters. The company lost 23 cents per share, 2 cents less than analysts had feared. LZB earned 5 cents per share, its second consecutive positive surprise.

The housing industry is moving towards stabilization. Both existing and new home sales have risen for 4 consecutive months. Though the increases are not large enough to spur significant increased demand for furniture, they are helping.

Most importantly, the economy is turning a corner. Consumer confidence has been negatively impacted by fears about job losses. Though the unemployment rate is continuing to rise, employers are cutting fewer jobs than they have in the past.

Opportunities in Furniture Companies

Though conditions continue to remain difficult for the furniture industry, analysts have been raising profit projections on several furniture-related companies. These positive revisions are creating a trading opportunity for investors with a high tolerance for risk.

Within the Furniture industry group, analysts have recently raised full-year earnings estimates on LZB, Herman Miller (MHLR) and Select Comfort (SCSS). In the Retail-Home Furnishings industry group, analysts have raised forecasts on ETH, Kirklands (KIRK) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM).

Sector Rank as of Sep 9
Sector This Week’s
Zacks Rank
Last Week’s
Zacks Rank
FY09
Revisions Ratio
FY09 Estimates
Revised Up
FY09 Estimates
Revised Down
Consumer Staples 2.65 2.63 2.41 195 81
Conglomerates 2.73 2.65 3.80 19 5
Retail-Wholesale 2.74 2.74 1.92 576 300
Auto-Tires-Trucks 2.76 2.84 1.34 43 32
Computer and Technology 2.91 2.92 2.15 620 288
Medical 2.96 2.97 1.24 287 232
Construction 2.97 3.06 1.12 65 58
Consumer Discretionary 2.97 2.96 1.18 180 153
Oils-Energy 3.01 3.03 0.99 352 355
Business Services 3.01 2.99 1.38 58 42
Basic Materials 3.02 3.00 1.03 140 136
Industrial Products 3.03 3.04 1.04 119 114
Utilities 3.03 3.02 1.21 93 77
Finance 3.09 3.10 1.04 429 414
Aerospace 3.23 3.23 0.71 30 42
Transportation 3.23 3.21 0.66 79 120

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com. He can be reached at crotblut@zacks.com.

Zacks Investment Research

Last 5 posts by Charles Rotblut





About Charles Rotblut (http://www.zacks.com/)
Charles Rotblut is the Vice President of Web Content for Zacks Investment Research and the Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com. He oversees the editorial staff, manages the market-beating Focus List, Timely Buys and Top 10 portfolios, and plays an instrumental role in the development of new products.

In addition, Mr. Rotblut is spearheading the development of investment education products, including the recently released Zacks Method for Trading.

Mr. Rotblut is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has analyzed publicly traded and privately held companies. His experience includes working for INVESTools (an investment education company), Curian Capital (a money management firm) and McClure, Schumacher & Associates (a business valuation firm). Mr. Rotblut holds a journalism degree from the University of Kansas.

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