Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO) could top expectations. Alcoa, Inc. (AA) could disappoint.

First-quarter earnings season “officially” starts on Tuesday afternoon with Alcoa’s (AA) report.

Per share earnings for the S&P 500 (SPX) are projected to have fallen 13.9%. Median company earnings are likely to be worse, down 21%. (The difference is that median earnings are not weighted, whereas index earnings are.) More than 370 companies could report a year-over-year drop in profits.

The big keys for first-quarter earnings season will be whether actual results are not as bad as feared and how much visibility do companies have. If a super-majority of companies can surpass expectations, then the numbers could give the market an additional boost.

Joining AA this week will be 29 other companies, including S&P 500 members Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Constellation Brands (STZ) and Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO).

The minutes from the March Fed meeting will be released on Wednesday afternoon (about 2 p.m.). The reaction to the notes could cause volatility in both the bond and equity markets.

• Tuesday: February consumer credit
• Wednesday: February wholesale inventories, March Fed minutes, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: March import and export prices, February trade balance, weekly initial jobless claims

Fed governor Kevin Warsh will speak about the financial markets at a conference in Washington D.C. on Monday afternoon.

The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. Have a happy Easter and a good Pesach. (Find that afikomen!)

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Thrifty consumers drove same-store sales at Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO) 6.4% higher last quarter. This strong performance prompted the discount retailer to guide for fiscal second-quarter profits of 59 to 61 cents per share. Brokerage analysts, who had been projecting earnings of 50 cents per share, promptly raised their forecasts to 60 cents per share. FDO has topped expectations during 6 out of the last 7 quarters. Family Dollar Stores is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Apr 8, before the start of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

About half of the covering brokerage analysts have cut their first-quarter profit projections on Alcoa, Inc. (AA) in recent weeks. The revisions have widened the projected loss by 19 cents to 51 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish and calls for a loss of 58 cents per share. AA has disappointed during 3 out of the last 4 quarters. As noted above, Alcoa is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Apr 7, after the close of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com. He can be reached at crotblut@zacks.com.

Earnings Calendar

Here is a list of companies that we have confirmed will report during the week of Apr 6 – 10¹. Prices are as of Thursday’s, Apr 2, market close.

BTO = Before The Market Open, AMC = After The Market Close

¹Some of the companies listed in the earnings
calendar may not be in the Zacks Rank universe.

Zacks Investment Research

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