Beige Book: Recession Moderating – Analyst Blog
Source: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/20956/Beige+Book%3A+Recession+Moderating+-+Analyst+BlogPosted on Wednesday, June 10th, 2009 | In Market Commentary, Stocks to Watch
The recession is moderating, though growth will not occur in the second half
The June Beige Book confirmed what I have been saying for weeks: the pace of deterioration has slowed. Five districts said that the “downward trend is showing signs of moderating.”
Counter-balancing this was the expectation that there will not be “a substantial increase in economic activity” throughout the remainder of the year. Again, this is inline what with the trends I’m drawing from the economic and earnings estimate revision data. Conditions are improving, but we are nowhere near to getting out the woods.
On the positive side, signs of improvement were noted in import and export activity, discount retail and lower-priced homes. Though this might sound like good news for Masco (MAS) or Dryships (DRYS), it’s important to note that we’re still far from a recovery in housing or transportation.
On the negative side, credit remained tight. Several districts blamed the lack of lending activity for depressing auto sales, which is problematic for Ford (F) and other car makers.
Agriculture also had problems. Above-normal rainfall delayed planting in some districts, while drought hurt Oklahoma’s wheat crop. Lower cattle and hog prices combined with higher feed costs were reported in some districts, which could adversely affect Sanderson Farms (SAFM) and its peers.
Read the full analyst report on “MAS”
Read the full analyst report on “DRYS”
Read the full analyst report on “F”
Read the full analyst report on “SAFM”
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 About Charles Rotblut (http://www.zacks.com/)
Charles Rotblut is the Vice President of Web Content for Zacks Investment Research and the Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com. He oversees the editorial staff, manages the market-beating Focus List, Timely Buys and Top 10 portfolios, and plays an instrumental role in the development of new products. In addition, Mr. Rotblut is spearheading the development of investment education products, including the recently released Zacks Method for Trading. Mr. Rotblut is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has analyzed publicly traded and privately held companies. His experience includes working for INVESTools (an investment education company), Curian Capital (a money management firm) and McClure, Schumacher & Associates (a business valuation firm). Mr. Rotblut holds a journalism degree from the University of Kansas. |
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