McCain Hurting In The Rural Vote
Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ElectionStocks/~3/367492223/Posted on Sunday, August 17th, 2008 | In Politics & Your Money
Republicans have long counted on the rural vote to help them win battleground states. It seems like McCain should be able to do the same, especially with the view that Obama is elitist (remember “bittergate”?). Unfortunately for McCain, the economic strife that rural voters perceive to be caused by the Bush administration is causing more and more rural voters to either side with Obama or not vote at all.
Rural voters have in the past been shown to have a significant impact, especially in swing states:
Rural voters accounted for more than 10 percent of the total vote in all but three of 12 closely contested battleground states in 2004, and more than 20 percent in four of them — Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin — according to exit polls. In all but two of the states, Bush won the small-town vote overwhelmingly.
The 2004 voting trends in rural communities appears to be shifting:
Nationally, Bush won almost 60 percent of the rural vote, but Republican John McCain doesn’t appear to be doing as well.
In an AP-Yahoo News Poll in June, rural voters favored McCain over Obama, 40 percent to 34 percent. About 34 percent of rural voters said McCain “shares my values,” compared to 27 percent who said Obama did.
So Obama works to capitalize on this shift:
Recognizing an opportunity, Obama has opened more offices in rural areas than any other Democratic presidential candidate in years, pushing a message focused on job creation. Neighborhood campaign teams have been going door to door talking about Obama and his economic policies. In Ohio, his campaign recently announced a “Barns for Obama” effort, in which farmers are encouraged to paint their barn with Obama’s logo.
Could this be a campaign killer for McCain? Or maybe it will influence Obama’s VP pick. Whatever happens, this shift in rural voters will undoubtedly cause both candidates to focus more on small town communities.
Last 5 posts by Jeffrey Miller
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bush administration, Iowa, john mccain, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Politics & Your Money, Wisconsin, Yahoo
 About Jeffrey Miller (http://www.oldprof.typepad.com)
Jeffrey A. Miller, Ph.D. is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. In 1987 Jeff began work for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. His approach included finding anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developing new forecasting techniques. Merging these quantitative techniques with specific company analysis, Jeff also generated trading ideas from sell-side analyst reports. Through his years of experience in trading options, futures and equities, Jeff has come to be regarded as an expert in interpreting the effect of news on the markets and individual stocks. Jeff has served as a forensic expert in several cases involving such issues. He has also written a series of papers on investment management, describing both quantitative methods and those related to behavioral economics. |
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