House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has an impressive record with passing big votes, but according to this article on The Hill a robust public option may be too much for the Congress to handle. Pelosi is relying on a complex series of whips to keep the factional Democratic party in line. There are two votes that will be particularly hard for her to get:

Rep. Frank Kratovil (Md.): Kratovil is considered one of the most endangered Democrats in this year’s freshman class. He became the poster child for incivility when protesters hanged him in effigy. So it was a surprise when Pelosi snagged his vote on climate change by making Maryland farmers eligible for as much as $1 billion in incentives for reducing emissions. But she might not get him this time; Kratovil has said he’s a no on the healthcare bill.

Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.): Pelosi has courted her assiduously, holding a high-profile event to announce that she would include in the bill Dahlkemper’s proposal allowing adult children to stay on their parents’ insurance longer. But Dahlkemper hasn’t committed publicly, and has told leaders she is a no on the “robust” public option.

Since Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid promised the Senate bill would include a public option (and Joe Liberman promptly announced he would vote it down) health insurance stocks have rallied. This indicates that the market is responding quicker than we had expected to doubts about the success of a public option. These trends are likely to continue as uncertainty grows on Capitol Hill.

Last 5 posts by Jeffrey Miller

• ETF Update: Looking to the Internet - October 25th, 2009
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• ETF Update: Another Look at the Banks - October 18th, 2009
• Identifying Quackery (and Other Mistakes) - October 6th, 2009
• Evaluating Predictions - October 5th, 2009