What Garmin (NASDAW:GRMN) Says About Consumer Spending
Posted on Monday, February 16th, 2009 | In Market CommentaryA few years back, I couldn’t believe that my father had finally bought a Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) GPS navigation system. It was a removable one, and the thing wasn’t cheap – around $600. We went to Orlando to look at real estate deals (back during the boom years) and just as I suspected, we got completely lost.
None the less, my dad loved the damn thing. And admittedly, I have one too (because they’re a lot better!). In fact, millions of people do. Garmin’s stock soared for years on the back of increased sales of their GPS units.
But you have to wonder whether people are willing to fork out a few hundred bucks on a non-essential when they’re about to lose their homes, their car, probably their dogs too.
Remember, markets are forward looking. What this decline from $120 to $17.20 per share tells us is that the market expects consumer spending to plummet. And so far this is exactly what we’ve seen.
In the short-term, though, Garmin could actually move higher.
As you can see, the Slow Stochastic indicator (at the bottom of the chart) is currently rebounding off of oversold levels. In other words it appears that buyers are swooping in to take the stock higher. Playing a call option here might not be a bad idea.
But you shouldn’t expect the stock to move much further than $20 per share. That’s where it meets up with its long-term downward trend line.
Unless it passes $20 per share, this stock should continue to plummet for at least the next year.
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contrarian profits, Garmin, GPS, Market Commentary, Orlando, real estate deals;, USD
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