Countries with strong commodity and cash reserves are going to be great markets on the far side of this financial crisis.

The first sentence of a Reuters article on Brazil’s Carinval is certainly… attention catching:

The 10 million extra government-provided condoms are poised, final touches being put on huge floats depicting Queen Cleopatra and Can-can dancers, and the Barack Obama masks are flying off the shelves.

Would have liked to have known the name of the company making those condoms, eh? That extra 10 million is on top of the 45 million already provided at Carnival.

But even “bigger” news to investors like yourselves is the fact that one float’s dancers were wearing costumes costing $13,000… A PIECE! And this in a massive global financial crisis that has caused even some of the mining towns in surrounding Brazilian states to cancel their parades.

By all estimates, though, folks are spending less money this year, and Brazil expects about a 10% drop in foreign tourists to Carnival.

You wouldn’t know it by the looks of Rio, though. I like to have fun, as you’ve read in these pages before (underground pubs in Slovakia, or crazy futbol matches in Argentina), but some of the videos from this year’s Carnival seem… whew… a bit excessive even for my tastes!

Currently Brazil is a little out of favor with investment analysts. Last week, I told Taipan Insider readers that Citigroup thinks Brazil’s market is in for a slide, and that investors shouldn’t buy in until the Bovespa hits 35,000.

I also told them that I didn’t necessarily agree with Citigroup (NYSE:C).

Here’s the thing, though, that everybody does seems to agree on: Countries with strong commodity and cash reserves are going to be great markets on the far side of this financial crisis. The problem is, nobody can time when this crisis will end, or which companies will be around to reap the rewards.

For Brazil, there are a lot of choices, like Companhia Vale (RIO:NYSE), which was just downgraded today despite expanding its iron ore customer base in China…

That means RIO has secured more long-term supply contracts, and that’s a sign of longevity. Clearly something that investors should be looking at if they want to buy shares for the long run in this market.

If you are a member of any of Taipan Publishing Group’s publications, you can read my full article online.

Source: Viva Carnival, Viva Brasil

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