Trend Condition of Key Stock Categories
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/qvmgroup/yrMF/~3/goC6Gz7SwxI/4865Posted on Thursday, June 18th, 2009 | In Market Commentary
Staying abreast of the direction of the primary trend (200-day average) of key stock categories and the position of moving averages of various length relative to the primary trend is helpful, along with fundamental and marco-economic information, in maintaining an overall situational awareness.
The table below presents the ratio of the value of the the 200-day simple moving average now to its value 20 days (1 month) ago. Values greater than 1.02 are shaded green for UP. Values between 1.02 and 0.98 are shaded yellow for UPDN. Values less than 0.98 are shaded pink for DN.
The table then presents the ratio of four moving averages (1-day [price], 25-days, 50-days, and 100-days) to the current 200-day average. Values greater than 1.02 are shaded green for ABOVE. Values between 1.02 and 0.98 are shaded yellow for NEARLY SAME. Values less than 0.98 are shaded pink for BELOW.
click image to enlarge
Note: table data above are from MetaStock which tracks prices only, whereas charts below are from StockCharts which plots price adjusted for dividends.
Here are charts for the funds in the table:
Comments Based on Price Data (table data):
The primary trends for all of the categories are still in a downward movement.
Because of headlines, it is probably not surprising that China is closest by the measure used here to an upward trend, but it may be surprising that Japan is next closest to an upward trend.
Only China and Brazil of the categories studied have each of the four shorter moving averages above the 200-day average, with emerging markets overall nearly there, and with developed Asia excluding Japan next in position and not too far away.
Securities in table and charts: VTI, VEA, VWO, VGK, EPP, EWJ, FXI, IFN, EWZ.
Disclosure: we own some of the named funds in some managed accounts and may own any or all at various times.
Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC
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 About Richard Shaw (http://www.QVMgroup.com)
Richard is a principal of QVM Group LLC, a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut with clients across the country. He provides investment coaching to "do-it-yourself" investors, and manages portfolios for those who prefer not to make their own decisions. His investment approach is based on value, asset allocation, benchmarking, expense control, risk management, customizing portfolios to each client's specific circumstances, and regular communication about strategy and performance. The QVM Group team also provides municipal refinance services, strategic business planning and financial analysis service for new ventures, private acquisition analysis, and custom investment research. Richard's extensive experience, includes serving on the Board of Directors of Aberdeen Asset Management PLC (London Stock Exchange: ADN), membership on the Board of Directors of Phoenix Investment Counsel (renamed Virtus Investment Advisors), a U.S. pension manager and investment advisor to the Phoenix Funds (renamed Virtus Funds), as well as serving as Managing Director of a series of offshore investment funds based in Luxembourg. He has led institutional asset management sales and had overall responsibility for management of a U.S. mutual funds broker-dealer. He was a charter investor and member of the Board of Directors of several internet companies, including Lending Tree prior to its IPO. He is a graduate of Dartmouth College. QVM Group LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Visit the QVM Group website http://www.qvmgroup.com/QVMinvest/ |
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