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The US Economy Is in Better Shape Then You Think

Source: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ContrarianProfits/~3/407327169/5799
Posted on Tuesday, September 30th, 2008 | In Market Commentary
Contributed by: Contrarian Profits (http://contrarianprofits.com) -

Yesterday, Hank Paulson’s colossal plan to intervene in the free market failed. Today, there is talk of another version of the bailout being pushed through Congress.

What most people just don’t get, says Chuck Butler is that the bailout “constitutes the single greatest case of ignoring the free market in modern history.” And there is actually little justification for it.

“On a historical basis, many parts of the US economy are in awfully good shape,” according to Chuck

This from The Sovereign Society:

We’re told to believe otherwise because doom and gloom dominates what the mainstream media consistently reports.

One of the biggest fear indicators they use: Employment numbers. After all, Americans don’t want to lose their jobs.

But look at the current employment situation on a historical basis: While U.S. job losses are on the upswing, they are fairly modest … and should be expected in a self-cleansing market.

Civilian Unemployment Rate Chart

As my chart shows, taking into account only the last 40 years, today’s unemployment rate sits relatively low compared to 1975, 1983, and 1993.

If we play our cards right we could see the current rise in unemployment top out around the same levels as it did roughly five years ago. That would be nothing to panic over.

Let’s look at inflation – another economic boogeyman…

Current CPI in the U.S. sits just north of 5%. That’s easily less than the roughly 6% to 7% back in 1991. And in 1980, for example, inflation reached almost 15%.

Countries, particularly emerging markets, would kill to have inflation as LOW as 5%!

More to the point, Americans can afford necessary food items as easily as ever. Here’s a snippet from an article put together by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas last month:

Based on the average U.S. pay rate, it takes less than two hours of work to pay for 12 basic food items – tomatoes, eggs, sugar, bacon, milk, ground beef, oranges, coffee, lettuce, beans, bread, and onions.

That figure is nearly as low as it’s ever been.

Consumption may finally be taking a breather, as it should, but discretionary items like computers, DVD players, cell phones, digital cameras and color TVs have become far more affordable. And that even includes those families considered “poor.”

Moreover, despite my view that the U.S. government is dipping its hand way too deeply into the markets, making them increasingly less free, it’s all a relative game.

Many other countries around the world are either officially in, or about to slip into, recession.

And on a relative basis, because their governments are much more entrenched in the market than Uncle Sam is in ours, their ability to recover is hampered even more.

Why is this an important part of the dollar equation? Because it means that, despite all our warts, it’s quite possible the U.S. might still win the global economic beauty contest by getting judged the least ugly.

PS: There are massive changes in store for the world economic system, and currencies will be the battlefield where this change actually takes place. Join Jack as he explores one of the most profitable sub-niches of the currency world and explains how to turn those changes into triple-digit profits. Click here to find out more.

Source: What Could Have Been a $700 Billion Slap in the Face

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About Contrarian Profits (http://contrarianprofits.com)

ContrarianProfits.com is a financial news and opinion website with a twist. As investment guru Rick Rule puts it, “You are either a contrarian or a victim.” In the financial world, most people are losers because they just don’t know what game they’re playing. They think they can just get “into the market” along with everyone else, do what everyone else does, and they will make money. Not likely. By the time you’ve paid commissions, spreads, fees, taxes – and suffered the consequences of inflation – you’ll be very lucky just to have as much money as you started with.

ContrarianProfits.com is a contrarian site, in the sense that we provide ideas, opinions and recommendations that often run counter to the mainstream financial press. We do this not just to be contrary, but because we’ve realized that Rick is right. You don’t make money by following the crowd; you make money by leading it.

Why is this so? Well, it’s obvious that if you do the same thing everyone else does you’ll get the same results everyone else gets. On average, and over the long run, real investment returns for the typical investor cannot exceed the rate of growth of the economy itself. Everybody can’t get richer faster than everybody else. Real economic growth in the US today averages about 3% per year; if you don’t make any mistakes, that’s about what you can expect. Few people may be satisfied with 3% per year, but most feel comfortable in the middle of the financial herd and are happy to take whatever that gets them. If you’re one of those people, you will probably not like our site. It will make you uncomfortable.

If, on the other hand, you’re willing to look at things a little differently, you’ll appreciate the views of many of our columnists, contributors and visionaries.

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