That Sound You Hear is the Government’s Printing Presses Running Overtime
Source: http://www.moneymorning.comPosted on Friday, October 3rd, 2008 | In Market Commentary
After some of the most tumultuous trading in history - not to mention the most pathetic political posturing we’ve ever seen - my e-mail box has overflowed with questions, comments and suggestions.
This week, I want to answer one of the most frequently asked questions that I’ve received: “Where does all the bailout money come from?”
Clearly, Uncle Sam doesn’t have a safety-deposit box - or even a greenback-stuffed Chock full o’Nuts can buried out in his back yard - but right about now I’m betting that he wishes he did.
To pay for the new $700 billion bailout bill, or even to cover the ever-growing federal debt, the U.S. government sells securities - lots of securities. The money is literally created from thin air by authorization and subsequently lent to institutions, individuals, foreign governments and others for what basically boils down to the mother of all IOUs. A portion of it, of course, is physically printed by Team Bernanke and the U.S. Federal Reserve on its turbocharged printing presses - and put into circulation as currency.
With regard to the bailouts, theoretically the Fed accepts an institution’s assets as collateral. Warts and all. In exchange, the Fed’s money is regarded as “senior” to even other senior debt holders, meaning that the Fed gets repaid ahead of paying everybody else including other debt holders.
Earlier this month, for example, the U.S. Treasury Department sold $40 billion in short-term debt that it would buy back in 35 days as part of a special program that will allow the central bank to keep pumping cash into the system on top of hundreds of billions it is making available through other channels.
Most Treasuries are auctioned off more regularly by so-called “primary dealers,” which are those financial institutions engaged in buying and selling U.S. government securities and which have established business relationships with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the biggest and most important of the 12 Fed banks. Individual investors can buy smaller amounts directly from the Treasury Department at auction or in secondary markets.
All of this is pretty plain vanilla stuff. But here’s something that’s actually very interesting: I’m hearing reports that at some of these auctions in recent weeks, several investors have literally bid zero - as in $0.00.
On the surface, that could be interpreted to mean that Treasuries are worthless. But in reality, this is one of the smartest moves I can think of for a professional trading house to make right now with cash it can’t afford to lose.
What these guys are doing is simply lending money to the Treasury - knowing full well that they’ll get it back in just over a month - instead of risking it in the stock market, or loaning to some other bank that has even more “toxic waste” on its balance sheet. In some cases, they’re even reportedly paying for the privilege of knowing their short-term money is safe.
This reminds me of something that I saw in Japan in the early 1990s, at the start of that country’s “Lost Decade,” when there was actually a premium associated with the “short-term investment funds,” or STIFs, that were held overnight.
In fact, the situation got so bad during the early days of Japan’s collapse that banks were basically paying each other - and the Japanese government - to take overnight deposits. Many refused … and we know the rest of the story.
Admittedly, the comparison I’m drawing is sort of apples to oranges, but the idea is similar, as are the underlying circumstances. Financial institutions want to transfer risk from their books to Uncle Sam so that they can ride through this unscathed - or at least to minimize any additional damage they might incur.
What all this says about our own immediate financial future is open to debate. But one way to look at this is that these institutions - which are running hundreds of millions of dollars they can’t afford to lose - believe the overall financial situation could get worse before it gets better. And that’s why they are going to extraordinary lengths to protect their assets, just as their counterparts in Japan did nearly two decades ago.
Having personally lived through those events in Japan 18 years ago, my instincts tell me we’d be wise to pay attention. Now isn’t the time to take anything for granted - and I do mean anything.
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Last 5 posts by Keith Fitz-Gerald
- Market Milestones to Watch for in the Months to Come - November 13th, 2008
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- Special Credit Crisis Commentary: Don’t Let the Market Rally Steal Your Long-Term Profits - October 14th, 2008
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![]() About Keith Fitz-Gerald (http://moneymorning.com)
Keith Fitz-Gerald is a Contributing Editor to Money Morning, as well as Investment Director of the Money Map Report and editor of the New China Trader. He is also a seasoned market analyst known for his accuracy, perspective and insight. He is also a former professional trader and licensed CTA advising institutions and qualified individuals, and he specializes in non-directional trading. Fitz-Gerald started his first business and began investing the proceeds at age 15, but he officially launched his business career 19 years ago when he joined Wilshire Associates, the globally recognized financial consulting firm. He is currently Founder and Managing Member of Fitz-Gerald Research Publications LLC, an investment-research firm that publishes general investment research, commentary and analysis. Having discovered key financial relationships that allow the markets to be modeled using complex systems based on Chaos Theory, Fitz-Gerald has been recognized as both a true pioneer of the form and an expert at using non-linear theory for market prediction, risk management and portfolio construction. That makes him one of the few people in the world who works exclusively with non-linear theory to predict the markets and forecast economic and financial events. With his cutting-edge analysis strategies, Fitz-Gerald has actually called some of the key market events in recent history. When crude oil was trading at less than $20 a barrel, Fitz-Gerald predicted it would rocket to $50, $60 and even $70 a barrel - the record levels that crude oil has reached today. He was one of the only analysts who correctly predicted both the 2000 stock-market decline and its subsequent turnaround in 2003. In February 2007, during an appearance at the World Money Show in Orlando, he publicly predicted that China’s shares were in for a tumble: He notified his subscribers of his prediction a full four days before that country’s stock market plunged 9% in a single trading session. And most recently, in speeches and detailed articles that preceded the actual event by several months, Fitz-Gerald repeatedly warned of the credit crisis that’s only now roiling the global financial markets. He was recently named a founding member of The Kenos Circle, a Vienna, Austria-based think-tank that identifies long-term economic and financial trends using the Science of Complexity, which is better known as “Chaos Theory.” Fitz-Gerald holds a BS in Management and Finance from Skidmore College and an MS in International Finance - with a focus on Japanese Business Science - from Chaminade University. He and his family split their time between Portland, Oregon and Kyoto Japan. |



