Sector Update and A Personal Note
Posted on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 | In Market CommentaryNormally we post a weekly update on recommended sectors each Thursday. In a small office there are sometimes disruptions. We had some surprises last week, including some emergency absences as the same time others were on leave. In addition, some of my best friends from my Wisconsin days appeared in Naperville on Thursday in a move carefully orchestrated by my family. The occasion was a celebration of one of those “round” birthdays. While I managed our trading on Friday, of course, the key concept was that I was to dial back my work schedule for a few days and celebrate with my friends.
I guess I should post a note on the site explaining such things, since I got a few emails inquiring about my health. Anyway, other than being older and very busy, I am fine. There are a number of interesting topics in my writing queue, and I’ll try to get back on track.
I appreciate the community of readers for “A Dash” and I’ll try to communicate better.
TCA-Update
The table below shows the TCA-ETF update as of last Wednesday night, our normal update time. It is interesting to note that the model emphasizes foreign and energy holdings, while still indicating that most of the sector choices have a “buy” rating. The top sectors are those also favored by commentators who are much more bearish on US equities. They are also not pure momentum plays, since many were the result of the “cyclical” part of the model.
Regular readers will note that this is not always the case. We define a cycle as ending when the model has us completely out of the market. That is also the beginning of a new cycle. We are on the third cycle since we have been reporting the weekly sector findings.

Last 5 posts by Jeffrey Miller
- A Tough Nut to Crack - October 29th, 2009
- ETF Update: Looking to the Internet - October 25th, 2009
- Healthcare Reform Becoming Less Likely - October 21st, 2009
- ETF Update: Another Look at the Banks - October 18th, 2009
- Identifying Quackery (and Other Mistakes) - October 6th, 2009
![]() About Jeffrey Miller (http://www.oldprof.typepad.com)
Jeffrey A. Miller, Ph.D. is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. In 1987 Jeff began work for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. His approach included finding anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developing new forecasting techniques. Merging these quantitative techniques with specific company analysis, Jeff also generated trading ideas from sell-side analyst reports. Through his years of experience in trading options, futures and equities, Jeff has come to be regarded as an expert in interpreting the effect of news on the markets and individual stocks. Jeff has served as a forensic expert in several cases involving such issues. He has also written a series of papers on investment management, describing both quantitative methods and those related to behavioral economics. |



