Proceeding With Caution, This Market is Shaky at Best
Source: http://www.market-speculator.com/2008/08/12/proceeding-with-caution-this-market-is-shaky-at-best/Posted on Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 | In Market Commentary
The crowd right now is certainly bullish, falling commodity prices including Light Sweet Crude oil have given CNBC’s market cheerleaders something to hang onto. Certainly the fall in crude will begin to ease the strain it has placed, high prices on regular consumers. However, it speaks to the global slowdown that is happening. I wrote about the pending fall of the Shanghai index (article). Year to date it has fallen 53%+ and from this article it fell 43%. Crude oil has begun to factor in the global slowdown effect it will have on crude demand. Outside of China, Japan and the Eurozone including Great Britain are forecasted to have negative GDP. This is why we are beginning to see the dollar strength against major world currencies. Although I will enjoy this move higher, I will remain cautious and just wait for stocks to setup.
From peak to trough the NASDAQ 00′ dropped over 78% of its value. This is an amazing stat, but what is more amazing is how closely correlated the Shanghai’s run, the NASDAQ’s run, and the Dow 1929 market are. I can not see into the future, but bubbles tend to correct 70-80% from their high. If this is true, the Shanghai could see its index value settling around 1500. What most will not realize is what follows a dramatic drop like this, RECESSION or possibly Depression. Most certainly the Chinese, despite what it’ll be in 15 years will suffer setbacks. I will not be surprised to see the Chinese economy have a hiccup here. I would stay completely away from China related names, it’ll be awhile before they roar back.
The Global Slowdown is upon us, the USA will most definitely pull out of this first and on top. Be patient and keep your capital safe.
Market Speculator
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 About Market Speculator (http://market-speculator.com)
Market Speculator began his market career shortly before 9/11/01. The methodology he uses comes from the greatest stock market traders of all time; Livermore, Darvas, O’Neil, Dryfus, etc. Decision making is based on price and volume while stock screening is done by growth in fundamentals. Much like William O’Neil’s CAN SLIM approach to investing Market Speculator focuses on a narrow amount of stocks and lives by cutting his losses early. |
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