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Poll Results: Will the US Bailout Plan Work?

Source: http://www.investmentpostcards.com
Posted on Wednesday, October 8th, 2008 | In Market Commentary
Contributed by: Prieur du Plessis (http://www.investmentpostcards.com) -

You know that stock markets and the economy are in trouble when the otherwise dour passport officials at Heathrow airport sympathize with your “investment manager” occupation. “We feel so sorry for you,” said the uniformed lady who usually asks trick questions. “But don’t worry, we’re al suffering.” I guess we are.

The US Congress on Friday passed the government’s $700 billion bank rescue plan, giving the Treasury secretary extraordinary powers to buy toxic mortgage securities from financial institutions.

Somebody remarked that the problem with financial institution balance sheets was that “on the left-hand side nothing is right and on the right-hand side nothing is left”.

And, after all, what will $700 billion buy? As shown by Angry Bear, seven financial institutions, leaving hardly enough change to get market lending started again.

7-oct-2b.jpg

Given the controversial nature of the bailout plan, I decided to conduct a snap poll on the issue of whether the plan would work. More specifically, I tried to gauge my blog readers’ sentiments on whether this step would be sufficient to break the logjam in global credit markets.

Interestingly, according to reader Tom, one of the American Heritage dictionary’s definitions of “work” is “to proceed laboriously”.

Be that as it may, a total of about 821 people participated in the poll and answered as follows:

7-oct-3.jpg

Based on the comments received on a number of previous “bailout” posts on this site, the 70.4% “No” vote does not come as a surprise.

As indicated by the stock market’s reversal of fortune on Friday after the vote and the subsequent sell-off, the poll results suggest a great deal of scepticism regarding the modified Paulson plan and, possibly, the realization that the financial turmoil is foreshadowing a hard landing for the US and European economies.

The “relief” plan is fundamentally flawed, is funded by taxpayers and will not make the credit problem go away. I certainly would have preferred a more direct approach to recapitalize financial institutions. But the administration’s package, together with other interventions, should at least serve the purpose of countering the massive deflationary forces of the turmoil. Remember: Debt + Deflation = Devastation. I would not be surprised to see coordinated and aggressive rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England in the immediate future.

As our plane starts descending on Frankfurt airport, I’m reminded of yesterday’s guest post by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, entitled “The helicopters are coming” …

Related articles:
Poll du Jour: Will the US bailout plan work?
Global liquidity crisis: What now?
The helicopters are coming

Last 5 posts by Prieur du Plessis





About Prieur du Plessis (http://www.investmentpostcards.com)
Prieur du Plessis has 25 years’ experience in professional investment research and portfolio management. More than 1,000 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns. He has also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment.
Prieur is chief executive and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, which he founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and other African countries.
Plexus is the South African partner of John Mauldin, author of the Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter, and also has an exclusive licensing agreement with California-based Research Affiliates for managing and distributing its enhanced Fundamental IndexTM methodology in the Pan-African area.
Prieur is 52 years old and lives with his wife, television producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Cape Town, South Africa. His recreational activities include long-distance running, motor cycling, traveling and reading.

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