Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman Comments on Intersolar Europe
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/Tk25GXLgsRc/Posted on Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 | In Market Commentary, Small & Micro Cap
June 2, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments – PacificCrestrsquo;s Mark Bachman weighed in this morning on his assessment of Intersolar Europe this past week with a note titled ldquo;Instersolar Conclusion: Industry Poised for Growth.rdquo; Here are his key takeaways:
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Expectations for improving solar market ldquo;were reaffirmedrdquo;
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) remains ldquo;high conviction longrdquo;, as the product of choice in the European market. Bachman notes that First Solar enjoys as $0.40/watt installed cost/watt advantage. Price target is $231 or 25x 2010 EPS estimate of $9.24. Notes also that he sees First Solarrsquo;s product as ldquo;the most bankable product currently on the market.rdquo;
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Also recommending Phoenix Solar (PS4.DE) with ldquo;upside to euro;56rdquo; and SolarWorld AG (SWVG.DE) with upside to euro;30.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; ldquo;Views on Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT) near-term solar opportunity have dimmedrdquo; and sees downside limited to $10 with upside to $15.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Thin film silicon solar failing to find traction at current price levels, and said tandem junction upgrades and capacity expansion will remain on hold until efficiencies improve and costs are lowered
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Generally optimistic projections for German PV market , and increasing estimate to 2,250MW, raising 2009 worldwide forecast marginally to 5,650MW
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Contacts at Intersolar said debt financing remains the key hurdle while project equity seems eager to be employed
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Credit market is improving, and sees equity participation for PV projects is ranging between 15% and 25%, but donrsquo;t expect to see 10% equity-financed deals in 2009. Visited with several banks and generally encouraged by outlook for 2H09
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Bankable modules are still prices meaningfully above First Solarrsquo;s new estimated contract pricing of euro;1.45 ndash; most range between euro;2 and euro;2.25
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Several potentially disruptive products coming to market in 2010: Abound Solarrsquo;s CdTe modules which have been able to achieve about 10% efficiency that can deliver 70 watts; on the CIGS front, SoloPowerrsquo;s 10% efficient module that can delivery about 100 watts and Solyndrarsquo;s CIGS-based tubular module; SunPowerrsquo;s T5 module; and on the a-Si front, QS Solarrsquo;s 6.5% gen-5 sized modules being produced at $0.90/Wp.
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