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Only Gold Is Winning the Ugly Contest

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ContrarianProfits/~3/8v2rInsC3qI/14189
Posted on Thursday, February 26th, 2009 | In Market Commentary
Contributed by: Jack Crooks (http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/blog/currency-corner) -

Gold did the deed. The precious metal closed over the psychological barrier of US$1,000 last week as the Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd sideswiped the dollar.

Mr. Dodd, a man who pontificates on any and every subject under the sun and never lets real knowledge of a particular subject area stand between him and the nearest microphone decided to try out the “N” word – Nationalization! Traders viciously dumped the dollar on Dodd’s “deliberation.”

Dodd Speaks, the Dollar Sinks

Currency Image

And of course the games continue!

The dollar was sharply lower on opening in Asia last night with nationalization of U.S. banks ruling the headlines. But of course the U.S. isn’t the only one flirting with bank nationalization. Take a second look at Europe and Japan (and just about anywhere you care to look) and it’s ugly!

The euro has already reversed 200 pips from its high overnight, likely due in part to Mr. Trichet’s weighty assessment that Europe’s financial system is under huge strain. I say weighty because one should never confuse Trichet’s statements with anything dribbling from the constantly flowing font that is Dodd.

We were of the opinion U.K. banks would beat others to the race toward complete bank nationalization. But it’s probably splitting hairs as de facto nationalization seems the order of the day. Why buy financials in your 401(k) when you own them anyway?

I used to tell people that currency analysis was like being the judge at an ugly contest – the least ugly wins. But now, there is little that separates the degree of ugliness among all competitors. Thus, we have gold printing over US$1,000 and who knows where from here.

Gold has soared against the euro, pound, Aussie and U.S. dollar; though it hasn’t made a new high yet against the buck.

Gold Has Already Climbed Against the Aussie, Euro, Pound and Buck

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We’re still sticking to our story that the world reserve currency will be buoyed at a time like this. But I have to admit that I’m covering my eyes when I see the U.S. government’s supercharged attempts to spend its way out of a debt deflation…ugh.

Currency Image

Replacing public debt to the same or increasing degree in which private debt is written down (public debt really means private debt because the private sector does all the wealth creation – while government mostly destroys it trying to “help” us) is no way to allow the system to cleanse.

But with pontificating pandering politicians never more than two minutes away from a microphone, we seem to be stuck there. And I have to wonder why we aren’t seeing any “traction.” Is it to cry, or maybe time to buy more gold? Maybe both!

Source: Only Gold Is Winning the Ugly Contest

Last 5 posts by Jack Crooks





About Jack Crooks (http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/blog/currency-corner)

John (Jack) Crooks is the founder and president of Black Swan Capital, an independent advisory firm specializing in foreign exchange and currency markets investing for retail and institutional clients. A seasoned financial advisory with nearly 20 years of investment experience, Mr. Crooks uses both quantitative and qualitative approaches to determine the fundamental driving force(s) behind the movement of the currency, capital, and commodities markets. He is the editor of Weiss Research’s latest investment offerings, World Currency Alert and World Currency Options, which were launched in August 2007.

Mr. Crooks also founded Ross International Asset Management, a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. Previously, he was general manager of Plexus Trading, where he specialized in currency futures and commodities trading. During his successful career, Mr. Crooks served as chief currency and futures strategist of M2 Futures Inc., an investment boutique headquartered in Chicago, as well as vice president of Global Strategic Research for an international investment boutique, where he was responsible for providing daily advice and global strategy analysis.

Prior to entering the investment arena, Mr. Crooks held various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics and has been published in Asian Times, Futures Magazine, Barron’s, Bloomberg, Dow Jones Newswire, and across many financial websites. He has also appeared on Bloomberg TV and CNBC.

Mr. Crooks holds a bachelor’s degree in finance from Florida State University and a master’s in business administration from the University of North Texas.

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