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Monthly GDP Estimates: Stabilization and Upswing…for Now

Source: http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/08/monthly_gdp_est.html
Posted on Thursday, August 20th, 2009 | In Economics, Market Commentary
Contributed by: Menzie Chinn (http://www.econbrowser.com) -

Here are the latest reads on monthly GDP:

auggdp.gif

Figure 1: Real GDP in billions Ch.2005$, SAAR (blue bars), Macroeconomic Advisers 8/17 release (green), and e-forecasting 8/19 release (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assuming end occurs at 2009M06. Source: BEA 2009Q2 advance release, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, NBER.

Macroeconomic Advisers writes:

… The level of monthly GDP in June was 0.2% below the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Average monthly increases of 0.4% per month would support our latest tracking forecast of a 2.8% increase in GDP in the third quarter.

e-forecasting writes:

Following a decline of 3.2 percent in June, the real-time monthly GDP, expressed at seasonally
adjusted annual rates in chained 2005 prices, increased 6.3 percent in July to $12,938.4 billion.

Last 5 posts by Menzie Chinn





About Menzie Chinn (http://www.econbrowser.com)
Menzie David Chinn is a Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin. He is co-author of Econbrowser.

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