World trade experiencing a “huge drop”, according to the World Trade Organization.  Rather than the gloomy 9% predicted earlier this year, volume will likely contract by 10%.

WTO Director General Pascal Lamy, told Reuters Television:

That’s the situation and I’m afraid I can’t read any good news in my trade numbers.

This news doesn’t bode well for any type of recovery. “Jobs picture turns gloomier” say the headlines. The U.S. unemployment rate officially popped up to 9.5% as nonfarm payrolls shed 467,000 jobs in June. The market is tanking today on this “brown shoot”… But the real story is far worse. And as reality seeps into the empty head of Joe Investor it could spell the end for the post-2008 wipe-out sucker’s rally…

As James Davidson points out in Crisis Strategy Alert, the BLS numbers have been massaged, manipulated, and contorted into giving only half the story. He says,

To get a real picture of the current unemployment levels you need to focus on the grossly underreported U-6 data set known as “alternative measures of labor utilization.” The U-6 data set includes everyone counted in U-3, plus “all marginally attached workers” and people who aren’t working full-time but wish they were (i.e., the underemployed). (Marginally employed covers “persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.)

When you add up U-3 and all the underutilized workers, the official U-6 rate for May 2009 is 16.4%. In other words, the employment picture is twice as bad 14 months after the recent peak as it was in December 1930, 18 months after the peak prior to the Great Depression.

But this surge in people lining up for welfare isn’t limited to the US either. According to the BBC, unemployment in the eurozone also jumped to 9.5%.  Leading the charge is Spain with 18.7% unemployment, while the liberal Dutch are experiencing a mere 3.2%.  Martin van Vliet an economist at ING on the new numbers:

May’s sharp increase in eurozone unemployment demonstrates that the ‘green shoots of recovery’ are not yet showing up in the labour market.

Ireland looks like the next eurozone nation to bite the dust. Our Irish editor, Chris Hunter, is taking holiday in Dublin right now.  In an ode to his arrival, Moody’s slashed Ireland’s debt rating from AAA to AA1.  Dietmar Hornung of Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group had this to say in news release:

The pronounced weakness in the economic activity has been translating into a severe deterioration of Ireland’s public finances, and the country is set to emerge from the current economic crisis with a considerably higher debt burden for the foreseeable future.

Moody’s is the last large agency to cut Ireland’s credit rating.  Fitch and Standard & Poors cut it earlier this year citing soaring public debt and a negative economic outlook.  As Irish GDP continues to contract, we expect further cuts in Ireland’s bleak future.

Yes dear reader the next leg down in this Greater Depression is not far off. The textbook sucker’s rally is losing steam. Take profits and buckle up because the second half of this year could test the March lows. If that were to happen, or even anything close it would be devastating to investor sentiment. Most “investors” have never seen a prolonged bear market, they wouldn’t recognize it or know what to do.  But one thing they will do is flee to cash.

In the short-term, we here are Notes are bullish on the dollar for this reason. Long-term of course we think the buck is doomed. But woe to those who go against the dollar too early. We think that James Davidson is doing all the right things to capture short-term dollar strength while hedging against long-term weakness with the Crisis Strategy Alert portfolio, click here to learn more about what he’s doing…

Last 5 posts by Contrarian Profits

• The Dollar, the Euro, and being Bullish on Gold - November 20th, 2009
• Audit the Fed – Amendment to a $200 billion bill frightens currency traders! - November 20th, 2009
• What if They Stop Buying our Debt? - November 19th, 2009
• Goldbugs Beware! The tax man cometh! - November 18th, 2009
• Debt – the fall of the U.S. economic empire - November 18th, 2009