Get Ready for the Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ContrarianProfits/~3/hpXqbBOu5xA/16012Posted on Wednesday, April 29th, 2009 | In Market Commentary
Commercial real estate at risk of default has quadrupled, according to a recent article in the Financial Times. It was only a matter of time before the consumer spending implosion destroyed the unsustainable increase in storefronts across America.
The volume of commercial mortgages at risk of default has quintupled since the beginning of 2008 as a deteriorating economy has made it increasingly difficult for shops and businesses to keep up with their payments.
Special servicers, companies that collect payments from borrowers in distress on behalf of mortgage bond investors, reported $23.7bn of mortgages under their care at the end of the first quarter, according to Fitch Ratings.
That was five times higher than the $4.6bn of mortgages needing special servicing at the end of 2007. Servicers experienced an almost 50 per cent increase in the volume of distressed commercial mortgages in the first quarter alone.
Mortgages for multi-family residential properties suffering from the housing downturn represented the largest share of the troubled loans at 31 per cent, said Fitch. However, mortgages for shops and businesses were catching up, with retail loans at 28 per cent of the distressed pools.
“Retail properties were the first property type to see the effects of declining economic conditions and consumer spending,” said Stephanie Petosa, analyst at Fitch. “[We have] observed an increase in defaults of retail loans and expect them to eventually surpass multi-family as the highest property type concentration.”
Fitch says it expects commercial mortgage defaults to continue to increase this year. At the end of the first quarter, defaults and payments more than 60 days late were at 1.53 per cent of outstanding mortgages. Fitch said they could reach 4 per cent by the end of 2010.
Good luck to banks holding onto junk commercial real estate loans… They better hope the government has deep pockets to cover the coming wipe out.
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