div align=”justify”The 96% collapse in the Baltic Freight Index last Summer was an early warning of the remarkable slump in global trade that has accelerated since October. Things are so grim that according to Lloyd’s List shippers in Asia are offering zero fees for containers to Europe. Outbound shipping traffic from LA/Long Beach is down 18% yoy, and emstrongJapanese exports have dived so fast that the country is now facing trade deficits for the first time since the 1970’s/strong/em, despite the fall in commodity import prices. Taiwanese exports (largely electronic components/subassemblies into China) were down 42% yoy in December. The chart below details the stunning reversal in China’s imports from Asia in recent months, and support my long-held view that the country faces a hard landing. /divdiv align=”justify”Interestingly, Asian exports to Europe are falling even faster than to the US (possibly as much at 10% this year, against 6-7% to US), suggesting the Eurozone is slowing much faster than consensus. Overall, it looks like emstrong2009 will be the worst year for global trade since WW2/strong/em. So what are the investment implications? strongem/em/strong/divdiv align=”justify”strongem/em/strong/divdiv align=”justify”strongemThis article continues in the subscriber area at /em/stronga href=”http://www.deadcatsbouncing.com/”strongemspan style=”color:#cc0000;”www.deadcatsbouncing.com/span/em/strong/astrongembr //div/em/strongp/pdiv class=”feedflare”
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Last 5 posts by Sean Maher

• Who was Smuggling $134bn in US Bonds into Switzerland? - June 12th, 2009
• Geithner Toxic Asset Plan Collapses: Will US Banks Follow? - June 10th, 2009
• US Unemployment hits 9.4%...that's Bullish, Right? - June 5th, 2009
• Oil Price Surge: Deja Vu? - June 3rd, 2009
• China Hedges Against US Inflation... - May 28th, 2009