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Early Indicators: Senate Votes… Stocks Lag

Source: http://www.contrarianprofits.com
Posted on Wednesday, October 1st, 2008 | In Market Commentary
Contributed by: Aaron Katsman (http://israelnewsletter.com/) -

– Today, it’s the turn of the Senate to vote on the bailout bill that Congress ditched spectacularly on Monday. Call it bold move, call it political stunt, Senate leaders hope the move will help the bill pick up more votes in the House.

– Mr. Market is still on edge, however. US stock futures have slipped after yesterday’s surge. “S&P 500 futures fell 11.9 points to 1,156.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 19 points to 1,585.50. Dow industrial futures fell 96 points,” reports MarketWatch.

– The FDIC isn’t taking any chances. It is asking Congress to approve an increase in deposit insurance limits. The FDIC currently provides $100,000 of insurance for individual bank deposits. How much of an increase it is looking for is anybody’s guess right. Barack Obama has called for a lower limit of $250,000.

Oil is down. The black goo is heading toward $100 a barrel this morning ahead of weekly US oil data.

– According to Dan Denning, who was quoted in yesterday’s 5 Min. Forecast, :

 The big story is in the credit markets, which are in as bad a shape as they’ve been since the credit crisis began. The credit markets are vital to the banking system, and the banking system is vital to anyone with deposits in the bank. This is how the credit crisis intersects with the real economy.

The whole target of the Paulson plan was to relieve pressure on banks. That pressure is right back on, following the failure of the U.S. House to sign onto the deal. That pressure threatens to spill over into the commercial banking sector. We wonder what it will do to the confidence of people who have money in the bank and not a lot of a confidence in the financial system at the moment.

This leaves us exactly where we’ve always had to be: the continued deleveraging of the global financial system. That means more asset write-downs, more bank failures and, sooner or later, a run on a few banks…”

Last 5 posts by Aaron Katsman





About Aaron Katsman (http://israelnewsletter.com/)
Aaron is a managing director and the senior portfolio manager of America Israel Investment Associates, Israel Growth Portfolio (www.israelgrowth.com) where he manages a portfolio of Israeli stocks that trade in the US. He is also president of the Global Investments for Profile Investments. Aaron is a frequent contributor to StraightStocks.com, focusing on Israeli stocks. He was a founder and managed the private banking group for Citigroup in Israel for three and a half years. From 1999-2001, he was a senior analyst at a leading Israeli venture capital fund, where he gained an intimate working knowledge of the Israeli hi-tech scene. Aaron holds a B.A. in Political Science from Yeshiva University in New York. He is licensed as an investment advisor by the Israel Securities Authority and holds NASD series 7, 63, 65 in the US.

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