Chart Trend Comparisons
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/qvmgroup/yrMF/~3/AlgwdSlvwZY/3385Posted on Monday, April 27th, 2009 | In Market Commentary
We present three tables comparing the charts of investment funds based on several criteria that some investors may find useful when interpreting whether the fund is in an uptrend or downtrend.
The charts used are multi-year, weekly charts. The criteria range from aggressive to conservative tests for trend.
Note that we do not present these as dispositive of opportunity. They are simply additional data to consider as part of your determination of entry or exit points on funds that you have otherwise determined are what you want to own for conceptual and fundamental reasons, and that you have determined by other means to be reasonably valued and not subject to risks beyond those you are willing and able to take.
Note also that the criteria we used to test for trend are not the only ones we use or that others use. They are just ones that are uncomplicated in nature and that could be interesting and helpful to some of our readers in their larger research effort.
One table compares funds for twelve key asset categories from which a reasonable total portfolio could be constructed. Another compares selected country funds. The other compares funds for key bond types.
Each fund is interpreted by these criteria:
- Is the slope of the 40-week simple moving average up, down or flat?
- Is the 20-week simple moving average above or below the 40-week simple moving average (above labeled UP, below labeled DN)?
- Is the price above or below the 40-week simple moving average (above labeled UP, below labeled DN)?
- Is the price above or below the 20-week simple moving average (above labeled UP, below labeled DN)?
- Is the slope of the 20-week simple moving average up, down or flat?
The designation “flat” is based on the slope of the last week or two to look for a flattening or topping out pattern.
To make it a bit easier to see how the funds compare, cells with UP have a green background, cells with DN have a pink background, and cells with FLAT have a yellow background.
For each table, SPY and AGG, representing important stock and bond benchmarks, are shown at the top for easy visual benchmark comparison.
The key asset category funds are:
- VTI: total US stocks
- VGK: developed Europe stocks
- EPP: developed Asia stocks
- EWJ: Japan
- EEM: emerging markets stocks
- IEF: intermediate US Treasuries (7-10 years)
- LQD: investment grade corporate bonds
- JNK: below investment grade corporate bonds
- MUB: national municipal bonds
- DBC: global commodities basket
- IYR: US equity REITs
- TIP: inflation protected US Treasuries
The selected countries funds are:
- FXI: China
- EWZ: Brazil
- IFN: India
- RSX: Russia
- EWT: Taiwan
- EWH: Hong Kong
- EWY: Korea
- EZA: South Africa
- ECH: Chile
- EWW: Mexico
- EWM: Malasia
- EWC: Canada
- EWA: Australia
- EWS: Singapore
- EWP: Spain
- EWU: United Kingdom
- EWG: Germany
The key bond category funds are:
- SHV: US Treasuries < 12 mo
- SHY: US Treasuries 1-3 yr
- IEI: US Treasuries 3-7 yr
- IEF: US Treasuries 7-10 yr
- TLH: US Treasuries 10-20 yr
- TLT: US Treasuries 20+ yr
- TIP: inflation protected US Treasuries
- VWSTX: short-term national municipal bonds
- VWITX: intermediate-term national municipal bonds
- VWLTX: long-term national municipal bonds
- BSV: short-term component of US aggregate bonds
- BIV: intermediate component of US aggregate bonds
- BLV: long-term component of US aggregate bonds
- LQD: investment grade corporate bonds
- HYG: below investment grade corporate bonds
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Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC
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 About Richard Shaw (http://www.QVMgroup.com)
Richard is a principal of QVM Group LLC, a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut with clients across the country. He provides investment coaching to "do-it-yourself" investors, and manages portfolios for those who prefer not to make their own decisions. His investment approach is based on value, asset allocation, benchmarking, expense control, risk management, customizing portfolios to each client's specific circumstances, and regular communication about strategy and performance. The QVM Group team also provides municipal refinance services, strategic business planning and financial analysis service for new ventures, private acquisition analysis, and custom investment research. Richard's extensive experience, includes serving on the Board of Directors of Aberdeen Asset Management PLC (London Stock Exchange: ADN), membership on the Board of Directors of Phoenix Investment Counsel (renamed Virtus Investment Advisors), a U.S. pension manager and investment advisor to the Phoenix Funds (renamed Virtus Funds), as well as serving as Managing Director of a series of offshore investment funds based in Luxembourg. He has led institutional asset management sales and had overall responsibility for management of a U.S. mutual funds broker-dealer. He was a charter investor and member of the Board of Directors of several internet companies, including Lending Tree prior to its IPO. He is a graduate of Dartmouth College. QVM Group LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Visit the QVM Group website http://www.qvmgroup.com/QVMinvest/ |
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