Aspire Misery Index for the Week Ended July 10, 2009
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/2CCs07jhF5A/Posted on Saturday, July 11th, 2009 | In Market Commentary, Small & Micro Cap
July 10, 2009 ndash; Another mixed week of economic data, which left Wall Street in doubt about whether the economy is going to rebound any time soon. Fridayrsquo;s downtick in consumer sentiment was a stark reminder that Main Street is not doing well and isnrsquo;t particularly optimistic.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Consumer Sentiment ndash; The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) index decreased to 64.6, the lowest level since March, from 70.8 in June. The forecast was for a reading of 70. With respect to Americanrsquo;s perceptions about their financial situation, and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, the reading fell to 70.4 from 73.2. The index of consumer expectations for six months from now fell to 60.9, the biggest drop since October, from 69.2.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; US Import and Export Price Indexes – The U.S. Import Price Index rose 3.2 percent in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today, led by higher petroleum prices.nbsp; The June increase followed a 1.4 percent advance in May.nbsp; Export prices also increased in June, rising 1.1 percent after advancing 0.5 percent in the previous month.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Wholesale Trade Data: Sales/Inventories
Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that May 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturersrsquo; sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $311.3 billion, up 0.2 percent (+/-0.5%)* from the revised April level, but were down 19.9 percent (+/-1.4%) from the May 2008 level. The April preliminary estimate was revised upward $1.4 billion or 0.4 percent. May sales of durable goods were down 0.2 percent (+/-0.7%)* from last month and were down 23.0 percent (+/-1.6%) from a year ago. Sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 8.1 percent for last month, while motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 4.4 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were up 0.5 percent (+/-0.9%)* from last month, but were down 17.2 percent (+/-1.8%) from last year. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were up 4.6 percent from last month and sales of drugs and duggists’ sundries were up 1.4 percent.
Inventories. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturersrsquo; sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $402.2 billion at the end of May, down 0.8 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised April level and were down 7.6 percent (+/-1.2%) from a year ago. The April preliminary estimate was revised upward $0.2 billion. End-of-month inventories of durable goods were down 1.5 percent (+/-0.4%) from last month and were down 8.2 percent (+/-1.6%) from last May. Inventories of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 5.2 percent from last month and inventories of lumber and other construction materials were down 3.2 percent. End-of-month inventories of nondurable goods were up 0.3 (+/-0.7%)* from April, but were down 6.6 percent (+/-1.6%) compared to last May. Inventories of farm product raw materials were up 6.1 percent from last month, while inventories of paper and paper products were down 2.2 percent.
Inventories/Sales Ratio. The May inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturersrsquo; sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.29. The May 2008 ratio was 1.12.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Budget Deficit – The federal budget deficit was $1.1 trillion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2009, CBO estimates, more than $800 billion greater than the deficit recorded through June 2008. Outlays are 21 percent higher than they were in the first three quarters of 2008, but revenues have fallen by 18 percent. The estimated deficit reflects outlays of $147 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), recorded on a net-present-value basis, and spending of $83 billion in support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.The Treasury reported a deficit of $190 billion for May, about $9 billion higher than CBOrsquo;s estimate for May on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. The difference occurred largely because outlays were higher than expected for the TARP and for the Department of Education.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Consumer Debt ndash; The American Bankers Association said that consumer loan delinquencies increased in the Q1 to another record high, to 3.23%. Credit card delinquencies increased to 4.75%. While the percentage of all outstanding debt on cards hit a record high of 6.60%.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Consumer Credit – Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent in May 2009.nbsp; Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of3-3/4 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1/4 percent.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Housing Market ndash; Realtor.com announced a survey which showed that almost 53% of consumers planning to buy a home in the future said they arenrsquo;t ready to do so now. About a third cited concern about their jobs. Concerns about selling their home was cited by 16% of those surveyed and 8% cited concerns about home prices that keep falling.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; And the Homeless ndash; The Housing and Urban Development Department says in its annual report to Congress released Thursday that about 1.6 million people used a homeless shelter or lived in transitional housing between Oct. 1, 2007, and Sept. 30, 2008 — about the same as the year before. But within that group, the number of families grew 9 percent, from about 473,000 to 517,000.
middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Job Cuts ndash; PPD (cutting 227 jobs); Monster (cutting 160 jobs); Covidian (cut 119 jobs); Courier-Journal (44 jobs, or 7% of work force); Arizona Republic (cut 100 jobs);
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