A Reader Challenge
Source: http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/Posted on Thursday, September 4th, 2008 | In Market Commentary
This will seem like a digression from our normal themes about investments, the economy, and interpreting data. Bear with us.
We want to talk about something with which we all have experience: Plumbing!
The challenge to readers is to find the source of the key point, indicated below. And yes, there is a little trick.
Background
We have used many plumbers over the years to solve an array of problems. Some of them made mistakes. Some over-charged. We have found their work to be erratic and expensive. We have documented changes in plumbing practices, often substituting plastic pipe for copper and taking other shortcuts.
Our experience has been confirmed by talking with neighbors who also have experienced plumbing problems. Polls also show an increase in the consumption of bottled water, partly attributable to plumbing.
The Key Point
Over these many years of critique and criticism, I have noticed two interesting factors:
1) The tendency for many plumbers to ‘circle the wagons’ around their chosen profession (i.e., blindly defend standard precepts). Hey, if you are going to go through the trouble of getting a union card in something, you probably don’t want to hear how flawed many of its basic assumptions and/or methodologies are.
2) The false counter-arguments, strawmen, and phony debates. There is no faster way to admit the weakness of your argument than to claim that credible criticism is merely a tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists. (A variation of “When the Law and Facts go against you, call the other lawyer a jerk” approach).
Summary
It is not necessary for us actually to experience the plumbing apprenticeship program (we didn’t) leading to the union card. We know what is taught, because we see the results. We know all about it.
The existence of a consensus among these so-called experts is itself evidence that they are wrong. Their responses to our criticism simply provide more evidence that we are right. There is even one plumber who has a website where he exposes the errors of his colleagues.
Let us all get real about plumbing. It is something with which we all have experience, whether or not we have ever put a hand on a wrench. We know.
Last 5 posts by Jeffrey Miller
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![]() About Jeffrey Miller (http://www.oldprof.typepad.com)
Jeffrey A. Miller, Ph.D. is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. In 1987 Jeff began work for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. His approach included finding anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developing new forecasting techniques. Merging these quantitative techniques with specific company analysis, Jeff also generated trading ideas from sell-side analyst reports. Through his years of experience in trading options, futures and equities, Jeff has come to be regarded as an expert in interpreting the effect of news on the markets and individual stocks. Jeff has served as a forensic expert in several cases involving such issues. He has also written a series of papers on investment management, describing both quantitative methods and those related to behavioral economics. |



