Prieur’s readings (October 30, 2009)
Source: http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/10/30/prieur%e2%80%99s-readings-october-30-2009/Posted on Friday, October 30th, 2009 | In Investing Lessons, Market Commentary
This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.
• Richard Ennis (CFA Institute): The uncorrelated return myth, November/December 2009.
• Peter Clarke (Financial Times): How to avoid a repeat of the Great Crash, October 28, 2009.
The chain of events leading from a collapse in stock prices on Wall Street to a Great Depression has leapt from history with an entirely fresh verisimilitude.
John Authers (Financial Times): GDP grows, but pain remains, October 29, 2009.
US GDP numbers were a good enough reason to halt the return of risk aversion, but the key to whether risk appetite can return depends on US employment data.
• Economist.com: As joyless recovery, October 29, 2009.
New figures suggest that America has at last moved out of recession. A lot of third-quarter growth was the result of temporary government stimulus.
• Kelly Evans (The Wall Street Journal): Goldman, JP Morgan economists debate shape of recovery, October 29, 2009.
The recession might be over, but how goes the recovery? The Journal posed that question to two prominent Wall Street economists with two very different views of 2010. Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan, sees the US growing at about a 3.5% pace for most of next year. That appears optimistic compared to Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, who sees gross domestic product growth of 2% or so at the start of the year tapering off to just 1.5% by year-end.
• Samuel Brittan (Financial Times): Goodbye to the pre-crisis trend line, October 2009.
The latest IMF World Economic Outlook points out that much of the loss of output in a severe recession is permanent.
• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): Central banks chill asset rally, October 29, 2009.
The liquidity tide is turning. Authorities across large parts of the world have either begun to tighten the spigot or are taking steps to wean their economies off emergency stimulus. This is a treacherous moment for markets.
• The New York Times: Ongoing agony of the banks, October 28, 2009.
It is nigh impossible for economic recovery to take hold when credit is sputtering as it is. For the Obama administration’s financial strategy to be a success, the banks must do more than survive. They must lend again.
• Nouriel Roubini (Forbes): Are capital controls in fashion again? October 29, 2009.
With portfolio investments to emerging market countries rising, policymakers need to figure out how to avoid losing international competitiveness while also containing asset inflation and the emergence of asset bubbles.
• Martin Feldstein (Financial Times): Why the renminbi has to rise to address imbalances, October 29, 2009.
Making Chinese exports more attractive helps lift gross domestic product and jobs in China but prevents a reduction in global imbalances.
Last 5 posts by Prieur du Plessis
- Paul Kasriel: Waking up in recovery - November 23rd, 2009
- Trading – ten common elements of success - November 23rd, 2009
- Prieur’s readings (November 23, 2009) - November 23rd, 2009
- Commercial real estate: How deep is the rabbit-hole? - November 23rd, 2009
- WealthTrack: Bruce Berkowitz interview – transcript - November 23rd, 2009
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, America, Bruce Kasman;, CFA Institute, chief economist, China, Economist, Financial Times, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Gross Domestic Product, International Monetary Fund, Investing Lessons, investment postcards, Jan Hatzius, John Authers, JP-Morgan, Kelly Evans, Market Commentary, Martin Feldstein, nouriel roubini, Obama administration, pain, Peter Clarke, Richard Ennis, Samuel Brittan;, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, United States, Wall Street Journal
 About Prieur du Plessis (http://www.investmentpostcards.com)
Prieur du Plessis has 25 years’ experience in professional investment research and portfolio management. More than 1,000 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns. He has also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment. Prieur is chief executive and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, which he founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and other African countries. Plexus is the South African partner of John Mauldin, author of the Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter, and also has an exclusive licensing agreement with California-based Research Affiliates for managing and distributing its enhanced Fundamental IndexTM methodology in the Pan-African area. Prieur is 52 years old and lives with his wife, television producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Cape Town, South Africa. His recreational activities include long-distance running, motor cycling, traveling and reading. |
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