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Politicizing the Olympic Decision

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/typepad/WuQQ/~3/2zD2L1n-7bc/politicizing-the-olympic-decision.html
Posted on Friday, October 2nd, 2009 | In Investing Lessons, Market Commentary
Contributed by: Jeffrey Miller (http://www.oldprof.typepad.com) -

pThose of us who live in the Chicago area have paid special attention to the Olympic decision.  There are a number of theories about what happened.  There was an especially a href=”http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1282880714amp;play=1″ target=”_blank”strong analysis/a from Dick Ebersol, NBC sports amp; Olympic Chairman./ppa href=”http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1282880714amp;play=1″Watch the video/a to confirm, but his key point is that the IOC has a European focus and is unhappy with the financial relationships with the USOC.  There are issues about how much of revenues come off the top, and what other countries get.  Ebersol suggests that without some changes in these fundamentals, also affecting the last bid from New York, it will be many years before we see an Olympics in the US./ppHis message is that this is an uphill battle — 18 votes for the US this time, and 19 for NY the last time.  It is a problem — and one not related to partisan politics./ppstrongThe Kudlow Spin/strong/ppRegular readers of “A Dash” know that we view the Kudlow show as a useful source of debate about the economy and the market.  They also know that we are disturbed by the increased injection of partisan politics, often extending to his assignments as a CNBC anchor, perhaps somewhat better since he is no longer a rumored candidate for office./ppIn tonight’s program Kudlow a href=”http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1283192386amp;play=1″ target=”_blank”portrayed the President’s decision/a to go to Copenhagen as a big mistake, undermining US credibility./ppWhat if the President not made the trip?  Kudlow might well have blamed the outcome on his failure to participate.  It has become routine for national leaders to make a pitch, but Obama had to trade this off with the health program debate.  Those present at the US presentation uniformly report that the involvement of the President and the First Lady were the best parts.  No one knows what would have happened if Obama had not made the trip, but the critics would have been loud./ppstrongInvestment Implications?/strong/ppWe understand that Kudlow is competing for ratings, and working in a very conservative time-slot demographic where many are eager to criticize the President./ppBriefly put, there are no investment implications from this event.  This piling on by Kudlow and his selected guests is more about partisan politics than the investment purpose of his popular program./ppOur own viewpoint is that we should be focused on investments, agnostic about politics, and trying to find the best opportunities.  Our objective is to make great returns regardless of which party is in power.  We seek information that helps in this quest.  Overtly partisan messages do not fit./pp/p
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Last 5 posts by Jeffrey Miller





About Jeffrey Miller (http://www.oldprof.typepad.com)
Jeffrey A. Miller, Ph.D. is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy.

In 1987 Jeff began work for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. His approach included finding anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developing new forecasting techniques. Merging these quantitative techniques with specific company analysis, Jeff also generated trading ideas from sell-side analyst reports.

Through his years of experience in trading options, futures and equities, Jeff has come to be regarded as an expert in interpreting the effect of news on the markets and individual stocks. Jeff has served as a forensic expert in several cases involving such issues. He has also written a series of papers on investment management, describing both quantitative methods and those related to behavioral economics.

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