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Growth, inflation creeping up as Egyptian equities shine

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FrontierMarkets/~3/zNgzSIfAEt0/
Posted on Friday, November 13th, 2009 | In Egypt, Frontier Markets, Investing Lessons
Contributed by: Jason G. Wulterkens (http://frontiermarkets.wordpress.com) -

Credit Suisse, for one, is maintaining an “overweight” rating on Egyptian equities in light of the country’s robust GDP growth–the strongest in 2009-10 GDP in the mainstream Europe, Middle East and African (EMEA) region–as well as its “solid external position and low currency risk.” In particular, the investment bank views Egypt as a “manufacturing base for neighboring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with excellent growth prospects [underpinned by] strong demographic support,” while also referencing a solid banking sector that “offers excellent asset growth potential funded by deposits” against the overall backdrop of an economy with an “extremely accommodative monetary policy.” Per Bloomberg, economic growth in Egypt, the most populous Arab country, rose from 4.9% in Q3 from 4.7% the previous three months. Yet growth is still below the average 7% seen from 2005-2008.

Sticking with Egypt, many analysts expressed surprise earlier this week when the central bank announced that the country’s core annual inflation rate had ticked up to 6.5% YOY in October, up from 6.3% the month prior. While some analysts noted that despite the October rise, the second derivative of this increase was falling compared with September, others focused more on the reported CPI for urban areas–considered the most reliable proxy indicator–which jumped to 13.3% in the year to October versus 10.8% in September, albeit on the back of increases in food and drink. Yet don’t except an imminent rate increase soon, Alia Mamdouh, senior economist at Cairo-based investment bank CI Capital, told Bloomberg: “It’s still not the time to raise rates because the economy is still in the recovery stage.” That said, Egypt’s Minister of Economic Development on Thursday reiterated the continuation of economic indicators in the direction of recovery. When hikes do occur may depend largely on future readings of the recently introduced core inflation index, a measure that typically strips out potentially volatile items such as food and energy.

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About Jason G. Wulterkens (http://frontiermarkets.wordpress.com)
Jason G. Wulterkens is a licensed attorney in the United States, who also has a degree in economics and a certificate in alternative dispute resolution (ADR). Anything and everything about the so-called “frontier” markets, including but not limited to their geopolitics and financial markets. Jason can be contacted at jgerritwulterkens@gmail.com.

No Responses to “Growth, inflation creeping up as Egyptian equities shine”

  1. momen Says:
    December 12th, 2009 at 12:38 am

    what r u expect for the market of egypt in the next month , and
    which companies will make a surprise ?

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