Nicholas Gvosdev, known for leading the realist view on Russia, has an interesting post listing some “game changers” which could tilt the calculus to achieve effective international consensus on Iran.  Though sometimes in the past my thinking has often contrasted with Gvosdev, we’re right on the same page in believing that nobody should have high expectations about improvements in U.S.-Russia cooperation on proliferation following the missile shield concession.

1) Growing instability in Iran that threatens the security of the
country’s nuclear installations and risks the loss of material to
forces hostile to Russia.

2) A change in regime in Iran that becomes much more hostile to
Russia. At present Iran has never encouraged Islamic extremism in
Russia and worked to stabilize Central Asia. A different government in
Tehran that starts talking about liberating oppressed co-religionists
from the heights of the Caucasus mountains to the northern Volga is a
different story altogether.

3) Direct, immediate compensation to Russia of the accounts that
would be lost should Russia agree to sanctions. For instance, would
Saudi Arabia realistically offer to purchase the equivalent of what
Iran wants to buy from Russia’s arms exporters?

4) Russia benefits from the current Western sanctions regime on Iran
because it prevents Iran’s formidable energy reserves from being used
as market pressure on Russia as a supplier to Europe. If Moscow isn’t
particularly worried about Iran’s ability to safeguard its nuclear
program, it isn’t going to be in a hurry to facilitate the U.S.
settling its differences with Tehran in order for Iran to then be used
to erode Russia’s market share. Some delicate way, then, of suggesting
that most of Iran’s energy should head eastward–particularly to a
hungry Indian market that Iran is best poised to supply?

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