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First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) Selling Off On Q3 Results – Bachman and Stone Weigh In

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/smallcappulse/feed/~3/MwgWnELQ3aI/
Posted on Thursday, October 29th, 2009 | In Investing Lessons, Small & Micro Cap
Contributed by: Small Cap Pulse (http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/blog/detail/) -

October 29, 2009 ndash; First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) is getting hammered this morning after reporting Q3 results yesterday after the close. The company reported revenues of $480.9 million, compared with $525.9 million in Q2 and $348.7 million for the same period last year. Net income was $153.3 million, or $1.79 per share,nbsp; compared with $180.6 million in Q2 and $99.3 million for the same period last year. Management said it expects full year fiscal 2009 revenue at the updated guidance range of $1.975 to $2.025 billion, which is at the high end of the previously provided guidance range.

Amongst analysts weighing in on First Solarrsquo;s report, are Pacific Crestrsquo;s Mark Bachman and Cowenrsquo;s Robert Stone.

Bachmanrsquo;s Key Takeaways

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Revenue miss was due to lack of module sales ldquo;despite management giving away more than $60 million in price concessions in Q3.rdquo; Bachman estimates only 272MW of modules were counted as revenue in Q3 vs. modeled estimate of 330MW.

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Costs were higher than estimated, at $0.85/watt, resulting in lower revenue/watt at $1.74 ASP. The lone bright spot was net income margin of 31.9%.

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; ldquo;On top of the reasons stated in our October 12 downgrade, we can now pile on a meaningful miss in Q3, weak guidance for Q4, and another EPS estimate cut to both 2009 and 2010. At our new 2010 EPS estimate, the shares are fully valued.rdquo;

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Rates the stock at SECTOR PERFORM

Stonersquo;s Key Takeaways

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Sharesnbsp; are likely to be depressed near-term (below $130) but nbsp;believes FSLR remains attractive, with 40%+ upside potential relative to the market in 12-months.

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Module margins should be relatively stable

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Raised 2010E shipments about 5% based on higher line throughput but believes FSLR needs more capacity

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Rates the stock at OUTPERFORM

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