From Cathy Young in the Wall Street Journal:

Given all this, a war seems unlikely. What’s more probable is that
Russia will seek to destabilize Georgia without military action. This
saber-rattling may be meant to boost Georgian opposition to Mr.
Saakashvili.

Still, Moscow’s actions are not always rational. If the pro-war
faction believes that the Western response to an assault on Georgia
would be weak and half-hearted, it could be emboldened. In a June 25
column on the EJ.ru Web site, Russian journalist Yulia Latynina writes
that the probability of the war “depends solely on the Kremlin’s
capacity to convince itself that it can convince the world that the war
is its enemies’ fault.”

That is why it’s essential for the United States and the EU to
respond now — by increasing their non-military presence in Georgia,
expressing a strong commitment to Georgian sovereignty, and reminding
Russia of the consequences of aggression. Such a statement from
President Obama in Moscow would go a long way toward preventing the
possibility of another tragedy.

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