The Canadian magazine Macleans has a new piece about Russia’s potential to seize upon the economic crisis to expand influence and rebuild the empire. It’s a pretty good story, even if it’s becoming quite familiar…

Whether Russia will be able to leverage its massive cash reserves to buy assets and influence from its neighbours rests entirely on the price of oil. “If prices stabilize, there will be a great opportunity for Russia to pursue economic influence in the former Soviet countries,” says Shamil Yenikeyeff, a Russia expert with Oxford University’s Institute for Energy Studies. Kyrgyzstan, which has an external debt of $2 billion—“and never really wanted independence from Russia in the first place”—will be the first country to fall under Russian control, Yenikeyeff predicts. “But,” he cautions, “if oil goes below $40, you can forget about Russian influence in eastern or central Europe, you can forget about Russia using its newly found economic power in its foreign policy, and you can forget about the resurgence of Russia’s influence.”

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