This piece over at RealClearWorld about Russia’s policy toward Iran is preaching the choir here at this blog:

As long as Iran remains a pariah state, Moscow can use Iran’s
isolation to sell them their outdated jets and secondhand products,
which other countries would not buy from them. This theory has its
merits. According to BBC Persian, Russia’s exports to Iran since 2006
have more than doubled from $864 million to $2.5 billion in 2008.

Moscow’s ties to Tehran’s hardliners balances out Washington in the region.

Furthermore, with its policy of defending Ayatollah Khamenei’s
administration, Russia has become an invaluable ally to Supreme Leader.
In fact, after Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, Vladimir Putin and
Dmitri Medvedev are considered to be the second most influential voices
inside Iran. This influence was put on display during Putin’s visit to
Tehran in November 2007. All he had to do was to place a proposal
regarding the nuclear standoff on Khamenei’s table. In less than a day,
current Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani and President Ahmadinejad were at
each other’s throats. The dispute ended with Larijani’s resignation as
the Secretary General of the Supreme National Security Council;
signaling that Russia’s position in Tehran is taken very seriously.

This influence, as useful as it has been to Moscow, has now started
to carry a price. Chants of “death to Russia” are heard more often in
Tehran by demonstrators. Although the reformists seem to be the
underdog at the moment, their cries should not be ignored by President
Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin. The longer the demonstrations
continue, the more the opposition’s leverage will increase. Should they
come out as the victor, Russia is likely to find its economic and
political power in Iran seriously diluted.

Russia would be wise to take a more wait-and-see approach in its
Iran policy. Should Moscow identify itself exclusively with the
Ahmadinejad camp, it may not only hurt its position in Iran, it could
also hurt its position in the region. Countries such as Saudi Arabia
and Egypt want to see Ahmadinejad weakened, but if they see Moscow
backing his administration, this could damage Russia’s position in the
Middle East.

Last 5 posts by Robert Amsterdam

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