Baltic states such as Latvia have been very busy reading the tea leaves from Dmitry Medvedev’s presentation of the Russian Federation’s new foreign policy concept paper.

I came across this interesting translation which illustrates some of the Baltic concerns over new and old priorities for Moscow in its near abroad:

The document says that Russia is “tended towards cooperation” with the Baltic States, but the issue of Russian speaking residents of Latvia “continues to be of fundamental importance.” This is nothing new, unless we compare this formulation to the strategy which Russia’s government approved in 2000. It stated that “respect for Russia’s interests, including the fundamental issue of the rights of Russian speaking residents” was “a mandatory prerequisite” for improving relations. This is a notable difference, particularly given developments over the last few years. The situation of Russian speaking residents in Latvia has not changed substantially since 2000, but the political relationship between Russia and Latvia has improved. A border treaty has been concluded, other agreements are being prepared, the tone of the discussion has changed, and so on. The conclusion here is that the “clause on the rights of Russian speakers” does not mean that in Moscow’s eyes, the current situation is an obstacle against the ongoing normalization of the relationship. Rather it is probably a signal for the Baltic States – if Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia were to take steps in other areas which are “unfriendly” for Russia, then the concern for the situation of Russian speaking people in our neighbouring country may suddenly increase once again.

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