While Jim Cramer and others are wringing their hands, the people I respect most are turning bullish.

At least, over the long term.

Let’s start with John Bogle. (Doesn’t it always start with John Bogle?)

Judging by the series of interviews he’s been giving lately, Bogle is very worried about the U.S. economy. As he said in an interview with Forbes today (highlighted by Murray Coleman in our invaluable new daily news roundup), “it will be a year-and-a-half to two years before [the U.S. economy] turns upward.”

That doesn’t mean investors should be sitting on the sidelines. Far from it. Bogle says the market may be undervalued by about $7.5 trillion right now, and thinks that the market has likely over-discounted the impending recession.

Bogle’s not alone. In the forthcoming January/February issue of the Journal of Indexes, Rick Ferri (a great financial advisor) calls this “the greatest opportunity in our lifetime” for young and middle-age Americans to “set [them]selves up for retirement.” Buy now, he says, and in 10 years you will be very happy.

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is even more bullish, saying markets could “gap” higher in 2009, and warning that investors who aren’t in now will find themselves chasing a market that may have already moved much higher.

The list goes on: Wharton professor and WisdomTree advisor Jeremy Siegel thinks stocks are “dead cheap“; Larry Swedroe thinks stocks will recover; even PIMCO’s Bill Gross is turning positive.

What separates all these analysts from the parade of negative voices filling CNBC, TheStreet.com and similar properties is that they are focused on the long haul. And from that perspective, understanding the market is easy.

I have no idea where the market will be three or six months from now. But 10 years from now, do you really think the Dow will be trading at 8,000? I sure don’t.

Here’s a thought: About a year ago, when the Dow was trading at 12,500, I bet our executive vice president Don Friedman $100 that the Dow would fall below 10,000 before it hit 15,000; in other words, that it would fall 2,500 points before it rose 2,500. I was worried by the failure of Bear Stearns and what it meant for the economy.

Right now, I’d make a similar bet, but on the upside. I’d bet $100 that the Dow will hit 10,000 before it hits 6,000; in other words, that it will rise 2,000 points before it falls 2,000.

How many people would take the opposite side of that bet?

Last 5 posts by Matt Hougan

• Just Getting To Fixed Income? - January 5th, 2009
• Yes, Jim, Perspective Is Important - December 31st, 2008
• Cap Gains Unfair - December 29th, 2008
• A Simple Example - December 23rd, 2008
• Why Market-Timing Might Work In Commodities - December 23rd, 2008