Breaking Down EM Flows A Bit More
Source: http://www.indexuniverse.com/blog/6213-em-flows-indicate-tougher-times.html?Itemid=3&utm_source=straightstocks.com&utm_medium=sidebar&utm_campaign=rssPosted on Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009 | In Exchange Traded Funds, Market Commentary
Interest in emerging market ETFs is exploding. But considering how illiquid and inexpensive these stock funds are to own, it’s not all that surprising.
As pointed out in our recent Q&A with emerging markets whiz Brad Durham (see story here), ETFs now have jumped to capture nearly a third of the assets in funds focused on those countries.
His breakdown of the world’s money flows between ETFs and mutual funds really makes me question the widely held view that investors coming into ETFs are largely ex-stock pickers.
Many fund industry veterans have been contending for years that ETFs’ gains aren’t coming at the expense of mutual funds. Perhaps that is true. Each year, I’ve taken a look at fund flows between active mutual funds, index mutual funds and ETFs. The last one, done in 2008, showed that ETFs were by far the percentage growth leaders.
But over an extended period, such research has reported that index mutual funds were also rising, whereas active mutual funds were on the decline in the short-term and have already hit a plateau (looking back over the past decade).
In such dicey times, it only makes sense that active fund managers are having particularly tough times stock picking in smaller global markets. I’d like to point our readers to another new piece of research by Credit Suisse’s Alex Redman. He has been gracious enough to let us reprint his latest study, which is the most thorough I’ve seen to-date, in the Research section of IndexUniverse.com.
One of the more intriguing aspects of the research piece is Redman’s analysis providing more in-depth reasoning behind why more investors are turning to emerging markets ETFs. He notes that “a vast majority of emerging market ETFs are aligned along regional or country geographies rather than sectors (in contrast to developed market ETFs, which are predominately sector oriented).”
Note: Funny he should mention that … today a third emerging markets sector ETF was launched. (You can read about that story here.)
“This will serve to self reinforce the tendency for active funds to invest by country rather than by sector and may significantly increase intra-country stock correlations rendering country selection (a top down macro approach) increasingly as important as stock selection in emerging market investing,” Redman noted.
He also found that pan-emerging market equity funds as a whole have attracted net inflows for all previous 10 weeks (the research piece is dated July 17). The only other occasion in this decade such a flow pattern has taken place, Redman adds, has been through the week of Nov. 7, 2007. He has also seen a record positive deviation in the MSCI EMF index above its 10-week moving average.
“We‘d caution that typically from these levels inflows and price momentum undergo a strong reversal,” wrote Redman.
But that’s just a tidbit. Enjoy …
Last 5 posts by IndexUniverse Staff
- Rethinking Leverage - November 24th, 2009
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- A Real Hedge Fund ETF? - November 17th, 2009
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- Better Than Cash? - November 17th, 2009
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IndexUniverse encompasses the world of indexing and beyond. Our website and related subsites cover product and market developments related to index funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), index derivatives (futures / options / swaps), and the sophisticated investment strategies which use these financial tools. Our goal is to provide the industry's best news, columns, research, and features about the dynamic field of index-based investing and trading. Industry professionals, individual investors, business/finance students and academic researchers will find various features targeting their interests and needs. We also provide valuable tools and data to assess markets and investment products, and specialized discussion boards for our registered members to exchange cutting-edge ideas and market views. We aim to be educational, thought-provoking, and most importantly, rigorously independent in our perspective. The development of IndexUniverse was a global effort, originally led by Steven Schoenfeld and Jim Wiandt, supported by John Spence and a diverse team in the U.S., Europe and Latin America, and enhanced by editorial contributors from around the world. The site is now managed solely by Jim Wiandt and the global Index Publications LLC team. The site was originally started by Steven as a data and information complement to his book, Active Index Investing, published by Wiley Finance in July 2004. As he recognized the need and potential for such a resource, in August 2003, Steven partnered with Jim, who as editor of The Journal of Indexes similarly recognized the industry's need for timely, useful and independent information on products and markets. |



