China and India: Canaries in the Coal Mine?
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/qvmgroup/yrMF/~3/wkNIwhUNakA/5995Posted on Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009 | In China, Emerging Markets, India, Market Commentary
Here are two bits of business news that investors should factor into economic recovery projections.
Hindustan Times (September 2, 200)
Exports dip again, down 28.4% in JulyIndia’s exports contracted for the 10th successive month, plunging by 28.4 per cent in July as order books continued to dry out from two of the biggest growth regions—the US and the European Union (EU)—which are still in the throes of a recession, reports
China Daily (August 31, 2009)
Industrial enterprises in 22 Chinese provinces, regions and municipalities generated 1.11 trillion yuan ($163 billion) of profit in the first seven months, down 17.3 percent from the same period last year, according to the latest official figures.The decline is 3.8 percentage points lower than that in the first six months, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement Friday.
Daily charts shown below use 1 month (21 day), 1 quarter (63 day), 6 month (126 day) and 1 year (252 day) simple moving averages, plus 1 month (21 day) price channels.
click images to enlarge
China (FXI)
India (IFN)
Keep in mind that China and India constitute about 1/3 of the market-cap of the emerging market index.
Emerging Markets (VWO)
US (SPY)
Disclosure: We do not currently own FXI or IFN, but own VWO and SPY.
Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC
Last 5 posts by Richard Shaw
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 About Richard Shaw (http://www.QVMgroup.com)
Richard is a principal of QVM Group LLC, a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut with clients across the country. He provides investment coaching to "do-it-yourself" investors, and manages portfolios for those who prefer not to make their own decisions. His investment approach is based on value, asset allocation, benchmarking, expense control, risk management, customizing portfolios to each client's specific circumstances, and regular communication about strategy and performance. The QVM Group team also provides municipal refinance services, strategic business planning and financial analysis service for new ventures, private acquisition analysis, and custom investment research. Richard's extensive experience, includes serving on the Board of Directors of Aberdeen Asset Management PLC (London Stock Exchange: ADN), membership on the Board of Directors of Phoenix Investment Counsel (renamed Virtus Investment Advisors), a U.S. pension manager and investment advisor to the Phoenix Funds (renamed Virtus Funds), as well as serving as Managing Director of a series of offshore investment funds based in Luxembourg. He has led institutional asset management sales and had overall responsibility for management of a U.S. mutual funds broker-dealer. He was a charter investor and member of the Board of Directors of several internet companies, including Lending Tree prior to its IPO. He is a graduate of Dartmouth College. QVM Group LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Visit the QVM Group website http://www.qvmgroup.com/QVMinvest/ |
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