There are many global macro investing strategies that make use of the yield curve. While primarily used to trade bonds, there are also several good uses for trading stocks and currencies as well. In fact as powerful as the yield curve is, there is likely a few yield curve strategies for every asset class out there.

The Treasury yield curve is the curve you get when you plot out the yields for different maturities. For instance if the 90-day T-Bill is at .2 percent and the 10-year T-Note is yielding 3.5 percent you have an up sloping yield curve as the long dated Treasuries are paying a higher yield then the short dated Treasuries. Usually you would also plot out the two year, five year, and thirty year along with the ninety day and ten year. This will give you a better picture for what the yield curve is really saying.

Of course being able to tell what will happen in the economy does not always translate to being able to profit from it as the markets sometimes do their own thing, or at least that is how it can seem. So how does one apply the yield curve to their trading? The primary rule of thumb is that an upwards sloping yield curve is bullish for the economy while a downwards sloping yield curve is bearish. The steeper either curve is the better or worse it is. At least these are the general rules.

So how does this help your trading? Well if the curve is steep then there is little chance that bonds will be able to stage a very robust rally. At the same time it might be a great time to go long stocks. If the curve is sloping down then it is a harbinger of things to come and the economy is ready to contract and therefore it is kind of a sell signal for stocks. At the same time if the curve is inverted then it is a great time to look at going long bonds as the Fed will likely begin a interest rate easing cycle and therefore driving up bond prices.

On the other hand if we have an inverted yield curve, where it slopes from the upper left to the lower bottom then banks will not lend as they are borrowing money at more expensive prices then they can loan it out for. This obviously curtails the credit markets and slams a break down on the economy. When this happens the Fed inevitably has to come in and lower rates to bring things back in line and help the economy grow again.

Bonds and rates are like a piece of wood straddled on a log. If you sit at one end the other end goes up. If bonds are at one end yields are at the other. When yields go down bonds go up and vice versa. This is almost always the case, especially in an inflation environment.

So if you are a global macro investor that is using the yield curve you can forecast when to get in and when to get out of stocks and bonds based on the macro economy. At the same time you can use the information and trade currency differentials as well.

Of course as with all things in the market nothing works every time. In fact the quote history never repeats itself, but it often rhymes is a very appropriate statement. Used along with proper risk controls the yield curve can become one of the global macro investors best timing tools and economic gauges.

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