German Retail Sales May 2008
Source: http://germaneconomy.blogspot.com/2008/07/german-retail-sales-may-2008.htmlPosted on Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 | In Economics, Germany
According to the latest provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office retail sales in Germany in May 2008 were up 3.5% in nominal terms 3.5% and in 0.7% real terms over May 2007. The number of days open for sale was identical in both years.
When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, sales turnover was up 1.7% in nominal terms and 1.3% in real terms over April 2008. That is quite a significant increase m-o-m.
Compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, retail turnover was up 2.2 % in nominal terms and down 0.4% in real terms in the first five months of 2008. German sales also fell markedly again in June, reversing from the sharp rise posted in May according to the Bloomberg retail PMI reading. The index slumped from the eighteen-month high of 56.6 achieved in May to 44.9. (The PMI measures the rate of expansion or contraction. As we have seen retail sales expanded rapidly – 1.3% in real terms over April – and now we seem to have an equally rapid rate of contraction going into June).
The monthly index really shows a before and after picture, with the sharp spike in December 2006 being followed by a huge trough in January 2007 following the 3% VAT hike. After that retail sales have never really recovered, suggesting that raising consumer takes in the way may not be as harmless as many thought, and it is certainly not the most advisable way to finance population ageing.
If we now look at the annual index, it seems to be the case that sales peaked in 2006, and since Germany’s population is now falling, it would seem to be more than just idle speculation to ask whether German retail sales will ever rise again on an annual basis.
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bloomberg, Economics, Federal Statistical Office, Germany, Germany, retail, Retail Sales, retail turnover
 About Edward Hugh (http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com)
Edward Hugh is a macro economist, who specializes in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying dynamics of migration flows. Hugh is a founding member and regular contributor to a number of economics weblogs, including Global Economy Matters, Demography Matters and a number of others. Edward 'the bonobo' Hugh is a Catalan economist of British extraction based in Barcelona. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again". He is currently working on a book with the provisional working title "Population, the Ultimate Non-renewable Resource". Edward also writes regularly for the demography blog Demography Matters. He also contributes to the Indian Economy blog . His personal weblog is Bonobo Land . Edward's website can be found at EdwardHugh.net. Edward follows in detail the Indian, Italian, Spanish, German and Japanese economies. He also has a more than a passing interest in the economies of Turkey and Brazil and in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe. |
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